TEL AVIV — A massive air defence drill under way in Israel will join Israeli and US systems to create the world's most advanced anti-missile umbrella to protect the Jewish state, officials said on Thursday.
The Juniper Cobra 10 exercises, the fifth in a series of joint air defence drills between the allies, began this week and comes amid heightened tension between Israel and arch-foe Iran.
Some 1,000 US soldiers will take part in the two-week exercise combining Israeli and US systems to "create the world's most advanced air defence system to protect our citizens and homes from attack," the commander of Israel's Air Defence Corps, Brigadier General Doron Gavish, told reporters.
Unlike past Juniper Cobras, this one will employ the widest spectrum of missile defense assets yet, including the US's Aegis BMD ships, Patriot PAC-3 batteries, THAAD batteries, the mobile X-Band radar currently stationed in the Negev, and Israel's own Arrow 2 batteries. Interoperability between allied systems is the main goal.
In this series of exercises we continue to advance our understanding of the art and the science of ballistic ."missile defense," Rear Admiral John Richardson, the U.S. officer overseeing Juniper Cobra, told reporters in Tel Aviv.
"This exercise is not directly related to recent announcements about ballistic missile defense in Europe, but the lessons and the insights that we gain from this exercise will certainly relate to developing that capability."
Admiral Richardson also goes on the dispel the scuttlebutt of the US leaving its missile defense hardware behind in Israel after Juniper Cobra is finished:
None of the American materiel used in the drill will remain in Israel after it winds up in mid-November, they said. But the United States does have a small military garrison at a strategic radar, X-band, stationed in Israel's southern Negev desert.
"The Israel Defense Force can defend Israel alone," Gavish said. "But it is good to know that U.S. capabilities are available."
Routinely trumpeted by missile defense critics as proof positive that missile defense only works in the sandbox of "highly scripted" tests against "gamed" targets, the lack of "Operational Realism" is the most common charge against our nascent ballistic missile defense system (BMDS). While it keeps racking up successful intercepts like clockwork, missile defense will never work in the real world, critics crow, therefore we should scrap it ASAP.
That all changes today.
With a bombshell article in Aviation Week, the stool is kicked out from under this perennial argument against missile defense. AW's Amy Butler reveals stunning new information about a recent missile defense test and just how operationally realistic it was.
On March 18, 2009, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA; full disclosure: I'm an MDA contractor) conducted a landmark test of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.
Lurking less than 1,000 km off the coast of Hawaii, MDA's mobile sea launch platform, the former amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli*, launched a medium range ballistic missile (MRBM) without warning. Seconds later, an unnamed Aegis BMD ship in the area was first to detect the launch with its SPY-1 radar and passed its tracking data to a THAAD interceptor battery on Kauai. Using the Navy's cue, the Army soldiers then directed their own THAAD radar onto the hostile missile, developed a firing solution, and loosed two interceptors seconds apart.
Meanwhile at the edge of space, the inbound threat missile released its warhead.
The first THAAD interceptor identified the warhead and smashed into it. As for the second interceptor, well, that's where things get interesting:
Two different Thaad interceptors were launched against a single target, simulating an Army operational concept of dispatching a salvo of weapons to ensure a threat is destroyed. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and industry officials declared the flight test a success shortly after it was executed.
However, they disclosed to Aviation Week only recently that the results exceeded their expectations. Early reports from the Pentagon said the second interceptor was intentionally destroyed in flight after the first disabled the target in a hit-to-kill engagement.
“Actually, what happened on the flight test was that the first interceptor hit just as it was supposed to and the second interceptor looked at all of this debris and said, ‘OK, I’ve got another something that looks interesting,’ picked out another threat, and went out and killed it,” says Tom McGrath, Thaad vice president for prime contractor Lockheed Martin. “The second intercept hit another piece of hardware. We can’t talk about what that was, but it picked out what logically you would expect it to pick out and killed it.”
Like McGrath, I'm forbidden from saying what exactly the second interceptor killed, but according to Agence France Presse:
In the test, the warhead on the target missile was separated from the rocket motor, requiring the interceptors to distinguish between the two.
The two missiles were launched 12 sec. apart. The successful intercept of a fragment from the remaining debris is notable because the second interceptor was faced with what is called a “complex target scene.” This included the wreckage of the target shortly after the first high-speed collision. “We had it timed [so] that the second kill vehicle would see the intercept of the first and see the target scene,” says U.S. Army Col. William Lamb, the MDA’s Thaad project manager.
The engagement also demonstrates the ability of the mission computer on board the Thaad interceptor to adapt to a rapidly changing threat scene. “In real short time, it said, ‘Uh oh, that doesn’t look like what the radar told me it was going to be’—because now, of course, it was looking at a debris field instead of something that was not planned to be a debris field,” says McGrath.
So, back to the critics --- is missile defense testing operationally realistic enough for you yet? Let's address each gripe:
"Missile defense tests are highly scripted.": Set aside for a moment any considerations for the scientific method or range safety. While its nice to, you know, know what you're testing against, observing how a system performs against your hypotheses, all while refraining from dropping live missiles on Honolulu, critics remain unsatisfied --- "Shut up, scripter!" A hostile missile was launched without warning. Redirecting its radar to the correct area of the sky after getting a data hand-off from an Aegis ship, an Army THAAD unit took the shot. Its second interceptor made an ad hoc targeting adjustment and destroyed an entirely unpredictable secondary target after the first interceptor smashed the threat warhead into a billion pieces at the edge of space. Scripted.
"The target missiles don't represent actual threats.": While some other missile defense tests employ US-made target "emulators" that mimic the performance of our adversaries' missiles, most THAAD targets are actual enemy missiles:
Of the six flight tests and successful intercepts since a missile redesign, five of the targets have been “foreign-acquired targets, against the real thing,” not a U.S.-designed threat emulator, says Army Lt. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly.
"Yeah, but what about a SCUD launched from a freighter?": This dramatic Jack Bauer scenario is a favorite of missile defense skeptics. What good are a bunch of long-range interceptors in Alaska if an enemy can just sneak up to shore in a rusty freighter and lob a short-range missile into Manhattan, they ask. Well, as demonstrated in this and many other tests, we've been there, done that:
SCUD launch from decommissioned USS Tripoli - June 2008
Lt. Gen. O'Reilly again on Operation Rustbucket:
“Many of those targets were shot from an asymmetric threat point of view of putting the missile on a barge [and setting] it off at sea,” he says.
"It has not been tested against countermeasures.": While that's categorically true, this test illustrates an interceptor's ability to make the same on-the-spot adjustments to take out other objects in the threat complex ... just like it would in a bonafide countermeasure scenario (which is planned soon).
"It has never been tested at night or in bad weather.": While some tests have occurred on beautiful Hawaiian afternoons (like this), some have not. Go back up there and watch the FTT-10A video again --- quite cloudy, no? And then there's this test:
In conclusion, this remarkably operationally realistic THAAD test goes a long way in defanging missile defense skeptics. Combine it with other BMD test successes and it becomes extremely difficult for critics to utilize the stale, knee-jerk arguments they've lazily relied on for the past 20 years.
*This THAAD test was a do-over of a scrubbed test from Sept. 2008. Keeping with my policy of not sharing sensitive information, the Tripoli is publicly disclosed as the target launch platform in a news report from then.
In a test involving three U.S. missile interceptors, Arrow tracked a target missile dropped from a C-17 aircraft, the Pentagon said in a statement. The Israeli system also exchanged data on the target in real-time with elements of the U.S. missile defense system, the statement said.
"Not all test conditions to launch the Arrow Interceptor were met and it was not launched," the Pentagon said.
The US interceptors "invovled" were a Patriot PAC-3, a THAAD, and the USS Benfold, an Aegis BMD destroyer. It appears that the Israeli Arrow II was the planned shooter and all the other assets were on station to exchange sensor and tracking data, which MDA claims met their objectives, including a simulated intercept by Benfold (PDF of MDA's release here).
Interoperability between our allied systems is very important, so it's not a total wash. I would like to know why the Arrow II stayed in its launcher, though.
What a difference a few months of up tempo ballistic missile and nuclear weapons tests by North Korea makes. When North Korea last threatened to launch its longest range ICBM toward Hawaii earlier this year, the reaction from the Obama Administration varied, from the embarassing gullibility of our Director of National Intelligence:
"I tend to believe that the North Koreans announced that they are going to do a space launch, and I believe that that's what they intend," [DNI Blair] told the Senate Armed Services Committee Tuesday.
The United States has no plans to shoot down the North Korean rocket, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Wednesday in an interview with CNN’s Jill Dougherty...
Appearing on "FOX News Sunday," Gates said North Korea "probably will" fire the missile, prompting host Chris Wallace to ask: "And there's nothing we can do about it?"
"No," Gates answered, adding, "I would say we're not prepared to do anything about it."
And culminating in our most advanced missile defense radar, the Sea-Based X-Band (SBX) Radar, being ordered to stay anchored at Pearl Harbor:
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gatesdenied permission for the U.S. Northern Command to use the Pentagon's most powerful sea-based radar to monitor North Korea's recent missile launch, precluding officials from collecting finely detailed launch data or testing the radar in a real-time crisis, current and former defense officials said.
Well, someone at Obama's Pentagon got the message, for Hawaii is being fortified with a new deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors and the SBX is finally putting to sea:
Mr. Gates told reporters that the U.S. is positioning a sophisticated floating radar array in the ocean around Hawaii to track an incoming missile. The U.S. is also deploying missile-defense weapons to Hawaii that would theoretically be capable of shooting down a North Korean missile, should such an order be given, he said.
"We do have some concerns if they were to launch a missile to the west, in the direction of Hawaii," Mr. Gates said.
Although Gates did not explicitly say that the U.S. would try to shoot down a test missile aimed in the direction of Hawaii, he noted that interceptor missiles in California and Alaska were ready.
"The ground-based interceptors are clearly in a position to take action," Gates said. "So without telegraphing what we will do, I would just say, I think we are in a good position, should it become necessary to protect American territory."
Perhaps the reality of missile defense is setting in on a few of the adults in Washington. Or more likely, perhaps someone's watching the polls:
A new Gallup Poll finds 51% of Americans saying North Korea currently poses a direct threat to U.S. security. That is the highest percentage seen for eight countries or territories tested in the poll whose political climates or ongoing conflicts present a threat to U.S. interests in the world.
An attempt Tuesday to restore money slashed from the missile defense budget failed to gain traction when an amendment that would have paid for additional interceptors in Alaska was defeated.
TERMINATION: MULTIPLE KILL VEHICLE PROGRAM; Department of Defense
The Administration proposes to terminate the Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV), which is a long-term research and development program designed to counter ballistic missile threats by using several "kill" vehicles launched from a single interceptor, or missile. The Administration will instead focus on proven, near-term missile defense programs that can provide more immediate defenses of the United States, its deployed forces, and allies against ballistic missile attack.
Justification
The primary reason the Administration proposes to terminate this long-term development program is to focus, instead, on proven, near-term missile defense programs, such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense programs. The capabilities of the THAAD and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense programs have been demonstrated through numerous successful flight tests. This termination of MKV will save over $4 billion from 2010 through 2015.
So while there's not much new in today's White House budget announcement versus Gates' previously announced cuts ($1.2 billion Obama cut vs. $1.4 billion Gates cut for missile defense and no additional program cuts introduced), the silver lining must be repeated:
President Obama says that missile defense is Proven.
You've come a long way, baby:
UPDATE: Commenter Ben alerts us to this bombshell that was not in Obama's budget document linked above, but buried in the actual Pentagon budget also submitted today --- the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) has been terminated:
On missile defense, the administration is seeking to buy only a single Airborne Laser aircraft due to "affordability and technology problems," while terminating the Multiple Kill Vehicle effort "because of significant technical challenges," according to the summary. Defense officials said they also terminated the Kinetic Energy Interceptor program because of technological issues.
One disk bought on eBay contained details of test launch procedures for the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) ground to air missile defense system, last used to shoot down Scud missiles in Iraq and tested again in March this year in response to North Korea's satellite launch. The missile system is designed to destroy long-range intercontinental missiles launched by terrorists or 'rogue states'.
The disk also contained security policies, blueprints and employee data from Lockheed Martin - the company responsible for THAAD.
In a do-over of this scrubbed test (faulty target, not interceptor) from last September, the highly successful Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system now has a hitting streak of 8 for 8 since 1999:
HONOLULU — The military's ground-based mobile missile defense system successfully shot down a medium-range ballistic missile during a test in Hawaii, the Missile Defense Agency said Tuesday.
It was the first time the military fired two interceptors at one target using the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, a program designed to shoot down ballistic missiles in their last stage of flight.
And for the critics who incessantly screech about operational realism, here you go:
In the test, the warhead on the target missile was separated from the rocket motor, requiring the interceptors to distinguish between the two.
The dummy warhead was shot down in its last minutes of flight, [MDA spokesman] Lehner said.
The soldiers who operated the system did not know when the target missile would be launched and more than 20 radars and sensors were employed on the test range to collect flight test data from the interceptor and the target, Lehner said.
I'm kinda getting tired of writing variations of this post's headline (see "Proven" on the left sidebar).
James McAleese, who advises companies that produce weapons, said he expects up to $2 billion to be slashed from the $10 billion that had been budgeted for the missile-defense programs — and which Mr. Obama had questioned during the presidential campaign.
UPDATE: Video of the THAAD salvo and intercept by yours truly:
Defense contractor Raytheon Co. said Thursday that the United Arab Emirates has ordered a Patriot missile defense system worth $3.3 billion.
The order, which came through the Defense Department, is for batteries used to shoot down incoming missiles in their last stages of flight. The system includes power generators, radar, and interceptor missiles made by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin Corp.
It is the latest purchase of missile defense equipment by U.S. allies in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Israel and Kuwait have all bought Patriot and other missile shield systems, largely to protect against missile threats from nations such as Iran.
Missile threats from where? I-what?
UPDATE: NPR has a report on this UAE deal (audio here), including input from Sec. Gates and Gen. Petraeus on the need for missile defense in the Middle East.
The Japanese air force shot down the dummy missile using Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptors in a ground-to-air test at White Sands, New Mexico, on Wednesday, the Defense Ministry said in a statement.
Bad News: The US scrubbed its own THAAD missile intercept test after the target (not the interceptors) malfunctioned:
It was the first breakdown after five successful tests of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD. Four of the successful test had been conducted with launches from the Pacific Missile Range at Barking Sands and one from White Sands, New Mexico.
The Missile Defense Agency said that because of the failure, the two THAAD interceptor missiles that were to take part in the test were not launched. So the full test was never completed.
...
"Because of the target malfunction, the target did not have enough momentum to reach the open ocean area previously approved for safe intercept," she said, adding that the target missile fell into the sea within the safe area.
Oh well, at least we didn't waste a couple of expensive birds...
As some of you know, I'm in the missile defense business (my company is a cog in the military-industrial complex contractor for the DoD's Missile Defense Agency). While most of my work revolves around the ground- and sea-based elements of our layered ballistic missile defense (BMD) system, my colleagues working on the Airborne Laser just passed a critical test:
The Northrop Grumman-built high-energy laser installed earlier this year on the Missile Defense Agency's Airborne Laser aircraft fired successfully Sept. 7 in a ground test at Edwards Air Force Base.
Called "first light," the test firing proved that the laser is ready to demonstrate power output sufficient to destroy a ballistic missile in flight.
Flight tests and live-fire laser shots commence next year.
Of course, the ground- and sea-based missile defense platforms have had a string of successful missile intercepts over the past 2 years. So much so that the United Arab Emirates is buying $7 billion worth of the THAAD system. Silly Arabs, don't they know these things are unproven?
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