Closing Velocity

Iran To Russia: Don't Welch On Those S-300 Missiles

S-300 on parade in Red Square

As the chances for an Israeli airstrike on its burgeoning nuclear weapons program increase, Iran's leaders are getting antsy:

TEHRAN (Reuters) - A senior Iranian military official complained publicly on Friday over Russia's failure to deliver a missile defence system that Washington does not want Iran to have.

Moscow, which is under Western pressure to distance itself from Tehran, has not followed through on proposals to supply high-grade S300 air defence missiles to the Islamic state.

"We are unhappy with the Russian friends up north," said Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces and a member of Iran's Supreme National Security Council in comments carried on state news agency IRNA.

"Why don't the defensive S300 missiles get permission to be sent for the purpose of Iran's defence, as agreed between the two countries? It has been more than six months since they should have been delivered to Iran by Russia."

He added: "Won't the Russian strategists take into consideration Iran's geopolitical importance in the security of this country?"

In Iranian state media, Firouzabadi goes further in castigating the Russians:

Firouzabadi questioned Moscow's motivation for the delay, adding that under a contract signed between the two countries, the Russian government was expected to supply Iran with the system aimed at boosting the country's defensive capabilities.

"The delivery is more than six months overdue," the top general said, urging Russia to expedite the process of delivery.

Iran's Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said on Wednesday that Russia had a 'contractual obligation' to provide Iran with the system.

"We have made a deal with the Kremlin to buy S-300 defense missiles," he said, referring to a contract signed between Tehran and Moscow in 2007.

"We don't think Russian officials would want to be seen in the world as contract violators," he added.

Awwww, that's cute --- Islamofascist Iran lecturing Putin's Russia on the finer points of contract law and capitalism.

Meanwhile as Iran screeches about its right to defend itself against Israeli aggression, its terrorist proxy Hezbollah complains about Israel's own defensive posture:

Nasrallah also lashed out at a major missile defense exercise staged recently by American and Israeli forces to test technology that would protect Israel from a missile attack. U.S. military officials have described it as the most complete air missile defense system done anywhere in the world.

"The Americans are coming, for the first time in decades and perhaps the first time since Israel's existence, to be a field partner in any confrontation that Israel might impose on Gaza, Lebanon, Syria or Iran," he said.

Recap:

Russian missile defense systems in Iran? Awesome.

American-Israeli missile defense systems in Israel? How dare they.

Biden: SM-3 Interceptors To Be Installed In Poland

Former Redzikowo Airbase, Poland

At the very same shuttered airbase that would have housed the siloed Ground-based Interceptors (GBIs) originally planned:

Biden was presenting a revamped U.S. missile shield replacing a scrapped Bush-era project that would have placed 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic to intercept long-range missiles from Iran. His one-day visit to Bucharest was part of a swing through eastern Europe designed to reassure Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic — all staunch U.S. allies — that America's commitment to the region remains strong.

The Obama plan would include SM-3 anti-ballistic missiles at a former air base in the Polish town of Redzikowo, the same site that was to host U.S. missile interceptors in underground silos under the Bush plan.

How does this exact same geographic deployment of missile interceptors not irritate the Russians? Easy:

Moscow perceives the new plan as less threatening because it would not initially involve interceptors capable of shooting down Russia's intercontinental ballistic missiles, experts say.

Sounds nice, but two things jump out:

1.  While these initial SM-3's can't down Russian ICBMs, ummmm, they also can't down Iranian ICBMs. McKittrick's broken record time: the original Euro BMD plan was designed to defend the eastern seaboard of the US against ICBMs launched from the Middle East. Obama's new plan does not have this capability. But... but... it will, assert the new plan backers, those next generation SM-3's will be able to defend the US against ICBMs! Really? Interesting, because

2.  Which do you think the Russians would be more concerned about, ten (ten!) highly-visible, immobile & siloed GBI's in Poland or several hundred SM-3 Block IIB interceptors parked in mobile launchers on land and at sea in and around Europe? Interceptors specifically tasked with countering massive raid size ICBM attacks?

Don't get me wrong --- I look forward to the new SM-3's, and the more the better. But I don't agree with the wisdom to scrap the GBIs. Our missile defense doctrine has always been to have a layered defense with multiple platforms able to engage threats at all the different phases of ballistic flight. Stripping out GBIs from this layered approach is a mistake.

US Considers Using UKRAINIAN Missile Defense Radars

Yep, given Obama's recent prostration before the Russians, this will get far:

KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine has begun talks with the United States on the possibility of Washington using information gathered by its radars, Interfax Ukraine cited Kiev's envoy as saying on Thursday.

The news is likely to irk Russia, which is highly sensitive to any hint of U.S. military partnership with former Soviet republics.

Washington last week denied it wanted to station U.S. radar systems in Ukraine, after President Barack Obama scrapped a planned missile shield based in central Europe.

Just last week, Washington and Kiev had to furiously backpeddle when US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Alexander Vershbow first let the cat out of the bag:

WASHINGTON — The United States on Friday sought to reassure Russia that Washington had no plans to deploy radars or weaponry in Ukraine as part of its new missile defense plan.

The Defense Department was forced to clarify its plans after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced concern over the new missile shield and said a report that Ukraine might be part of the system was "rather unexpected."

US Assistant Secretary of Defense Alexander Vershbow had told reporters on Thursday that Ukraine and other countries have expressed an interest in hosting a radar site for the shield.

But the Pentagon said: "He (Vershbow) did not make any reference to the stationing of US radars or any other missile defense systems on the territory of Ukraine, and no such proposal has been made to the government of Ukraine."

Granted, this news got screaming headlines in the Ukraine and Russia last week, but that was because it appeared the US was simply going to set up its own radars --- with its own personnel --- on Russia's doorstep. That's not the case:

The announcement made headlines in Ukrainian media. Some analysts and politicians were quick to point out that the Ukrainian constitution forbids hosting foreign military facilities. President Viktor Yushchenko was quick to say that the US never made any suggestions on those lines.

Now it appears that, rather than hosting an American radar, Ukraine will offer one it already has to become part of the system. It currently possesses two long-range radars, one in the capital of Crimea, Sevastopol, and another one in the city Mukachevo in western Ukraine. [ed --- see map above]

On the one hand, since Russia itself has repeatedly offered the US use of two of its own missile defense radars at Gabala, Azerbaijan and Armavir (instead of the one planned for Brdy, Czech Republic), one would think Russia would have no problem with the US utilizing a similar arrangement with the Ukraine. On the other hand, one would be dreadfully wrong.

Lest the aura of Nobel prizes have temporarily blinded you, let me remind you that Russia just successfully cowed Obama into giving up long-planned missile defense sites in the territories of two stalwart NATO Allies, the Czech Republic and Poland. Ukraine was a former Soviet Republic (not a satellite), is a NATO aspirant (not a member), and oh yeah, home to the frickin' Russian Black Sea Fleet. Yup, Putin will have zero problem with this Ukrainian radar scheme.

In the meantime, the Ukrainians are enjoying this small opportunity to poke the bear in the eye:

[Ukrainian Ambassador to the US] Shamshur suggested Russia had missed its chance to use information from Ukrainian radars. Russia canceled a post-Soviet radar data sharing deal last year, complaining the installations in Ukraine were outdated.

"We are also talking about the question of using our defense radars across Ukraine's territory, which, as you all know, Russia has declined to use," Shamshur was cited as saying.

The Ukrainians are playing a very dangerous game here, and in an apparent attempt to soothe eastern European fears over his recent retreat, Obama could also provoke Moscow much more intensely than the old Bush missile defense plan ever did.

Indeed, to appreciate the gravity of the Ukrainian situtation, be sure to check out this must read article on the poisonous climate of Russian-Ukrainian relations:

In August, Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, gave his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yushchenko, an unprecedented diplomatic mugging. In a seething letter, and subsequent video message, Medvedev reprimanded Yushchenko for his "anti-Russian" stance. He told him that, as far as Russia was concerned, the pro-western Yushchenko was now a non-person.

After reeling off a list of grievances, Medvedev said he would not be sending an ambassador to Kiev. He also said he was reviewing Russia and Ukraine's 1997 friendship treaty – a hint that Moscow may no longer respect Ukraine's sovereign borders. The message was blunt: whoever wins Ukraine's presidential election in January has to accept Russia's veto over the country's strategic direction.

And what is ground zero of all this Russian animosity? Why, the Crimea --- site of one of those Ukrainian missile defense radars:

The flashpoint, Gorbulin says, is Crimea, the lush peninsula beloved by 19th-century Russian writers and Soviet tourists. It is Ukraine's only Russian-majority province. It is also the home of Russia's Black Sea fleet – anchored just around the coast from Yalta in the historic port of Sevastopol. Under the terms of a lease agreement with Ukraine, Russia is supposed to vacate the base in 2017. But it doesn't want to.

In recent weeks, pro-Kremlin newspapers have been speculating that Crimea might soon be "reunited" with mother Russia, solving the fleet issue. The best-selling Komsomolskaya Pravda even printed a map showing Europe in 2015. The Russian Federation had swallowed Crimea, together with eastern and central Ukraine. Ukraine still existed, but it was a small chunk of territory around the western town of Lviv.

Georgia is peanuts compared to the Ukraine ... especially now that the Russians are considering nuclear first-strikes against neighbors even during a conventional war.

With the humiliating betrayal of allies coupled with this clueless thwacking of a Ukrainian hornet's nest, Obama appears to be blindly stumbling into what may become a very ugly European crisis.

Obama Pentagon: Euro Missile Defense Changes Had Nothing To Do With Russia

Really? What pathetically transparent spinning:

"This is not about Russia. It never has been about Russia," said Defense Undersecretary Michele Flournoy. 

...

"Nothing that we did had anything to do with Russian saber rattling, or their consternation about ground-based interceptors or the Czech radar. The decision was not part of any trade-off or quid pro quo," said Ellen Tauscher, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security.

Then why, at the very moment Flournoy and Tauscher are testifying before Congress, do the Russians say otherwise?

“Within our efforts aimed at preparing a new strategic offensive arms reduction treaty, as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reiterated, we rivet special attention to the need to underscore an interrelation between offensive and defensive arms. We hope that a decision taken by U.S. President Barack Obama will allow American negotiators to take into account this interrelation within the context of the new treaty,” [Russian Foreign Minister] Lavrov pointed out.

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Video: Surprise: Russian Paranoia Over Missile Defense Continues, US To Place Aegis BMD Ships "In The Arctic"

Aegis cruiser USS Ticonderoga in rough seas

In the days after Obama's surprise introduction of his new European missile defense plan, many wondered how the Russians would react. The conventional wisdom quickly settled on the "Obama as Chessmaster" view, in which his pragmatic swapping of fixed, ground-based interceptors (GBIs) & radar in Eastern Europe for mobile SM-3's oh-so-cleverly brought the Russians to our side right before Obama dropped the bomb on Iran at the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh. Brilliant! A masterstroke! (crowing video here) 

I had a different take:

Does anyone really believe the Russians will suddenly be all hunky-dory over a new land-based system after their screeching just successfully killed the old one? Dream on.

For a refresher on what will change under Obama's plan, here are two key highlights from the Pentagon briefing. In the first clip, Gen. Cartwright describes the future SM-3-based system (sea- and land-based), its global mobility, its "substantial capability" against ICBMs, and the geometric increase in interceptor inventory it enjoys. The second half is Gates talking about Russia:

So we're ditching 10 siloed interceptors in a tiny, easily monitored, fixed location in Poland ... for hundreds of extremely mobile ones --- specifically designed to counter massive ICBM missile raids --- in and around Europe both at sea and (probably) on mobile ground launchers. Yep, the Russians will absolutely love that.

What's that? They don't?

You mean the guy who originally touted the nefarious Polish GBI-as-nuke scenario that Gates described above has a new paranoid conspiracy? Why, yes. Yes, he does --- American missile defense ships in the Arctic countering Russia's ICBMs:

[Russia's ambassador to NATO] Dmitry Rogozin's comments showed Moscow's distrust as it awaits details on Pentagon plans to create new mobile interceptor missiles, dropping an earlier U.S. scheme to set up fixed bases in Poland and the Czech Republic.

"Where are the guarantees that this mobile thing, be it a boat, a cruiser, or a battleship with a mounted missile-defense system and with missile interceptors, will not sail into our northern seas?" Rogozin said at a press briefing.

Wait a tick: what about the Arctic permapack and Ice Station Zebra and all that, you ask? How can American Aegis cruisers ply the rock hard Arctic Ocean, Dmitry? Easy, he explains:

He added that the reduction of sea ice in Arctic due to climate change could lead to the all-year-round opening of the Northern Sea Route, is a shipping lane running along Russia's Far Eastern and Siberian coasts that is usually only free of ice for around eight weeks a year.

"The ice would retreat, it would melt, which means that NATO would definitely be present in the Arctic. They have been planning it for a long time, and under the very bad circumstances the U.S. strategic missile defense would arrive there onboard these ships," Rogozin said.

Global warming --- is there anything it can't do?

Full Video: Pentagon Briefing On European Missile Defense

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. James Cartwright discuss President Obama's new plan for European ballistic missile defense in the following four videos (transcript):

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Russia's NATO Diplomat Celebrates: Rotting Corpse Of Missile Defense Finally Removed

Dmitry Rogozin, Russian Ambassador to NATO

Leave it to Russian ultra-nationalist and NATO ambassador Dmitry Rogozin to humbly accept President Obama's gift to the Kremlin:

A senior Russian official told the BBC the decision was a breakthrough for relations between Moscow and Washington.

"It's like having a decomposing corpse in your flat and then the undertaker comes and takes it away," said Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's ambassador to Nato.

"This means we're getting rid of one of those niggling problems which prevented us from doing the real work."

So in Rogozin's formulation, Obama was the helpful undertaker. Bring out your dead.

Rogozin has been the go-to posterchild for Russian paranoia over European missile defense since its inception. On Russian talk radio shortly after the election of Obama and Medvedev's instantaneous threat to target Poland with nukes, Rogozin had this to say about the kinetic interceptors (i.e. no explosive warheads) planned for Poland:

The missiles planned for Poland are double-purpose, very fast and modern weapons. They can be guided by radar to intercept ballistic and other flying targets, as well as targets on the ground. They would be able to reach Moscow in 4 minutes after take-off and are so precise they can hit the window of our president's office in the Kremlin. I believe that their deployment is intended for a disarming and disorganizing attack on the capital of Russia (Ekho Moskvy, November 28).

And Obama got rolled by this loon? Wonderful.

Video: Obama On European Missile Defense

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Ironic Anniversary Alert: Obama Scraps Missile Defense In Poland On 70th Anniversary Of Soviet Invasion

Soviet Invasion of Poland, Sept. 17, 1939

Giving Poland's former Soviet master Russia a tremendous strategic & diplomatic victory, Barack Obama, student of history, abandons missile defense in Poland on the worst possible date:

"We have been hearing such things for a while now via different papers, from some conferences and so on," said Witold Waszczykowski, deputy head of Poland's National Security Bureau which advises President Lech Kaczynski.

"This would be very bad. Without the shield we would de facto be losing a strategic alliance with Washington," he said.

For Poland, the timing of the report is particularly sensitive. Thursday marked the 70th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of eastern Poland following a pact between Moscow and Nazi Germany, an event seen by Poles as "a stab in the back."

"I hope this is just a coincidence," said Waszczykowski.

See? Hopenchange is still alive.

Other Polish officials are shell-shocked:

"This is catastrophic for Poland," said the Polish Ministry of Defense spokeswoman, who declined to be named in line with ministry policy.

Cold War hero and former Polish President Lech Walesa unloads:

Meanwhile, former Polish President Lech Walesa said he was deeply disappointed by the new US administration's plans. "The Americans have always only taken care of their own interests and they have used everyone else," Walesa told Polish news station TVN24. He said Poles must rethink their own view of America and start thinking about their own interests.

Meanwhile in the Czech Republic, the other victims of Obama's appeasement react:

"It puts us in a position that we in Central Europe have known for the last 100 years: we're not anchored by a strong security partner, a strong ally," said Mr Topolanek, leader of the centre-right Civic Democrats. "I see that as a threat."

Civic Democrat MP Jan Vidim, however, went further.

"My first reaction is one of enormous disappointment and disgust at Mr Obama's cowardice," Mr Vidim, chairman of the lower house defence committee, told reporters.

Vidim continued, illustrating how damaging Obama's decision is to future US-Czech relations:

"If the administration approaches us in the future with any request, I would be strongly against it," said Jan Vidim, a lawmaker with Czech Republic's conservative Civic Democratic Party, which supported the plan.

And of course, the Russians don't even see Obama's embarassing concession as a concession. Prepare for a freshly emboldened Russia to challenge a weakened Obama further:

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he expected the Obama administration to drop the missile-defense plans. He said that Moscow wouldn't view the move as a concession but rather a reversal of a mistaken Bush-era policy.

UPDATE: Welcome, Jules Crittenden folks. Obama just made the announcement, and Gates & Cartwright are holding their Pentagon briefing as I type this. I'll post video when available.

Here It Comes: Obama Officials On Their Way To Eastern Europe To Officially Betray Allies

You're Welcome.

It was just a matter of time, Michael Goldfarb reports:

According to reliable sources, Obama administration officials are on their way to Poland and the Czech Republic to deliver very bad news. The administration intends to cancel completely the missile defense sites that had been promised to these governments by the previous administration. This represents a complete capitulation to Russia's Vladimir Putin, who had demanded that the proposed deployments be halted as a price for improved relations.

You'll never guess who's leading the delegation:

Four senior Obama officials, including Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Ellen Tauscher and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security “Sandy” Vershbow, are apparently in the air right now on their way to Poland.

Closing Velocity readers are quite familiar with Tauscher. Before joining the Obama Administration, then-Rep. Tauscher (D-CA) made her stance on Polish interceptors clear:

Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher, chairwoman of the Strategic Forces Subcommittee, visited the two countries Dec 16–17. “I am unwilling to dig holes in Poland and fill them up with untested rockets.”

And then, after being tapped for her current position at the State Department, now-diplomat Tauscher had these diplomatic words for some of our staunchest allies in Eastern Europe --- all while totally discounting the Iranian ballistic missile threat:

Tauscher, who has been asked by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to serve as undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, said that advocates of the European plans "have been running around with their hair on fire," the Associated Press reported.

The writing has been on the wall for some time. It will be interesting to see how the currently beleagured Obama White House spins this humiliating capitulation to Putin and ugly rebuke of our allies.

A European columnist responds:

The impending cancellation of Third Site is a shameful abandonment of America’s friends in eastern and central Europe, and a slap in the face for those who actually believed a key agreement with Washington was worth the paper it was written on.

(h/t: memeorandum for the Goldfarb post)

UPDATE: An unnamed Senate aide makes the same point I've always made here: European missile defense was never exclusively about defending Europe --- it was about defending OUR largest east coast cities:

A senior GOP Senate aide said that the effect of the administration's switch to short- range systems, such as the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3), was that the program would no longer have any capability to defend the U.S. homeland and would only be able to protect parts of Europe.

"The important fact here is that if you go with the land-based SM-3s, you don't protect the United States," said the aide.

"It changes the nature of the debate," the aide continued. "Why should the U.S. spend 6 or 7 billion dollars just to protect Europe? That's going to be a completely different argument."

Exactly. That's why the unanimously adopted Lieberman-Sessions Amendment to the defense bill is so crucial:

“The Senate today made clear that we will only support alternatives to the current plan that can defend both the United States and our European allies.”

If Obama is allowed to proceed, he will have empirically made the United States less safe. That's a cold fact.