Closing Velocity

Video: Successful Japanese Aegis BMD Intercept

Yet another direct hit yesterday off Hawaii:

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Video: Surprise: Missile Defense Works Even Better Than Expected

Routinely trumpeted by missile defense critics as proof positive that missile defense only works in the sandbox of "highly scripted" tests against "gamed" targets, the lack of "Operational Realism" is the most common charge against our nascent ballistic missile defense system (BMDS). While it keeps racking up successful intercepts like clockwork, missile defense will never work in the real world, critics crow, therefore we should scrap it ASAP.

That all changes today.

With a bombshell article in Aviation Week, the stool is kicked out from under this perennial argument against missile defense. AW's Amy Butler reveals stunning new information about a recent missile defense test and just how operationally realistic it was.

On March 18, 2009, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA; full disclosure: I'm an MDA contractor) conducted a landmark test of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.

Lurking less than 1,000 km off the coast of Hawaii, MDA's mobile sea launch platform, the former amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli*, launched a medium range ballistic missile (MRBM) without warning. Seconds later, an unnamed Aegis BMD ship in the area was first to detect the launch with its SPY-1 radar and passed its tracking data to a THAAD interceptor battery on Kauai. Using the Navy's cue, the Army soldiers then directed their own THAAD radar onto the hostile missile, developed a firing solution, and loosed two interceptors seconds apart.

Meanwhile at the edge of space, the inbound threat missile released its warhead.

The first THAAD interceptor identified the warhead and smashed into it. As for the second interceptor, well, that's where things get interesting:

Two different Thaad interceptors were launched against a single target, simulating an Army operational concept of dispatching a salvo of weapons to ensure a threat is destroyed. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and industry officials declared the flight test a success shortly after it was executed.

However, they disclosed to Aviation Week only recently that the results exceeded their expectations. Early reports from the Pentagon said the second interceptor was intentionally destroyed in flight after the first disabled the target in a hit-to-kill engagement.

“Actually, what happened on the flight test was that the first interceptor hit just as it was supposed to and the second interceptor looked at all of this debris and said, ‘OK, I’ve got another something that looks interesting,’ picked out another threat, and went out and killed it,” says Tom McGrath, Thaad vice president for prime contractor Lockheed Martin. “The second intercept hit another piece of hardware. We can’t talk about what that was, but it picked out what logically you would expect it to pick out and killed it.”

Like McGrath, I'm forbidden from saying what exactly the second interceptor killed, but according to Agence France Presse:

In the test, the warhead on the target missile was separated from the rocket motor, requiring the interceptors to distinguish between the two.

At the time, I highlighted the historic significance of this test (FTT-10A). It was the first "salvo" test and it was the first "separating MRBM" test. And now that we know what really happened to the second interceptor, it all comes together:

The two missiles were launched 12 sec. apart. The successful intercept of a fragment from the remaining debris is notable because the second interceptor was faced with what is called a “complex target scene.” This included the wreckage of the target shortly after the first high-speed collision. “We had it timed [so] that the second kill vehicle would see the intercept of the first and see the target scene,” says U.S. Army Col. William Lamb, the MDA’s Thaad project manager.

The engagement also demonstrates the ability of the mission computer on board the Thaad interceptor to adapt to a rapidly changing threat scene. “In real short time, it said, ‘Uh oh, that doesn’t look like what the radar told me it was going to be’—because now, of course, it was looking at a debris field instead of something that was not planned to be a debris field,” says McGrath.

So, back to the critics --- is missile defense testing operationally realistic enough for you yet? Let's address each gripe:

"Missile defense tests are highly scripted.": Set aside for a moment any considerations for the scientific method or range safety. While its nice to, you know, know what you're testing against, observing how a system performs against your hypotheses, all while refraining from dropping live missiles on Honolulu, critics remain unsatisfied --- "Shut up, scripter!" A hostile missile was launched without warning. Redirecting its radar to the correct area of the sky after getting a data hand-off from an Aegis ship, an Army THAAD unit took the shot. Its second interceptor made an ad hoc targeting adjustment and destroyed an entirely unpredictable secondary target after the first interceptor smashed the threat warhead into a billion pieces at the edge of space. Scripted.

"The target missiles don't represent actual threats.": While some other missile defense tests employ US-made target "emulators" that mimic the performance of our adversaries' missiles, most THAAD targets are actual enemy missiles:

Of the six flight tests and successful intercepts since a missile redesign, five of the targets have been “foreign-acquired targets, against the real thing,” not a U.S.-designed threat emulator, says Army Lt. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly.

"Yeah, but what about a SCUD launched from a freighter?": This dramatic Jack Bauer scenario is a favorite of missile defense skeptics. What good are a bunch of long-range interceptors in Alaska if an enemy can just sneak up to shore in a rusty freighter and lob a short-range missile into Manhattan, they ask. Well, as demonstrated in this and many other tests, we've been there, done that:

SCUD launch from decommissioned USS Tripoli - June 2008

Lt. Gen. O'Reilly again on Operation Rustbucket:

“Many of those targets were shot from an asymmetric threat point of view of putting the missile on a barge [and setting] it off at sea,” he says.

"It has not been tested against countermeasures.": While that's categorically true, this test illustrates an interceptor's ability to make the same on-the-spot adjustments to take out other objects in the threat complex ... just like it would in a bonafide countermeasure scenario (which is planned soon).

"It has never been tested at night or in bad weather.": While some tests have occurred on beautiful Hawaiian afternoons (like this), some have not. Go back up there and watch the FTT-10A video again --- quite cloudy, no? And then there's this test:

In conclusion, this remarkably operationally realistic THAAD test goes a long way in defanging missile defense skeptics. Combine it with other BMD test successes and it becomes extremely difficult for critics to utilize the stale, knee-jerk arguments they've lazily relied on for the past 20 years.

*This THAAD test was a do-over of a scrubbed test from Sept. 2008. Keeping with my policy of not sharing sensitive information, the Tripoli is publicly disclosed as the target launch platform in a news report from then.

UPDATE: Welcome, Ace of Spades HQ.

Video: "Stellar Avenger": Aegis Destroyer USS Hopper Intercepts Missile Off Hawaii

"A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what a ship is built for." --- Rear Admiral Grace Hopper, namesake of the US Navy's latest successful missile defense shooter.

Yesterday afternoon, outside the atmosphere 100 miles above Hawaii, an interceptor launched from the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) destroyer USS Hopper(DDG 70) achieved a direct hit on an inbound ballistic missile:

The latest US missile defence test, conducted last night in Hawaii waters, was deemed a success as tensions continue with North Korea over that country's missile programme.

A short-range ballistic missile was fired from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on the island of Kauai and then was shot down by a three-stage interceptor missile from a destroyer, the USS Hopper.

The test, conducted by the Navy and the Department of Defense's Missile Defence Agency, marked the 23rd firing by ships equipped with the Aegis ballistic missile defense system.

With the latest test, there have been 19 successes, including the shooting down of a dead US spy satellite last year.

Joining the Hopper on "Stellar Avenger" were two other Aegis ships, the destroyer USS O'Kane(DDG 77) and the rock star of last year's satellite shootdown, the cruiser USS Lake Erie (CG 70). Side note: the month before Lake Erie's sat shot, Hopper nearly opened fire on a swarm of Iranian gunboats in the Straits of Hormuz (video). She's a multitasker.

While Hopper gets bragging rights for the intercept, the other Aegis ships got the opportunity to test their own missile defense systems, tracking the target missile, developing firing solutions, and simulating their own intercepts. A second target missile was fired for Lake Erie--- the long-time Aegis BMD testing "flagship" --- to test the newest upgrade to the Aegis system (4.0.1). No intercept was planned for the second target and no interceptors were launched. Here's Hopper popping her target:

"If you do something once, people will call it an accident. If you do it twice, they call it a coincidence. But do it a third time and you've just proven a natural law!" --- Grace Hopper

And what exactly does 19 for 23 mean, my missile defense skeptics? Congrats, crew of the Hopper!

UPDATE (8-1-09): Want to see an Aegis ship up close and personal? Here's your chance, today and tomorrow only in Los Angeles.

BREAKING: Obama Admits Missile Defense is PROVEN

While it is unfortunate that his administration is terminating and reducing several missile defense projects, Obama's announced budget cuts today are rather historic --- missile defense has officially been deemed PROVEN by the President (PDF):

TERMINATION: MULTIPLE KILL VEHICLE PROGRAM; Department of Defense

The Administration proposes to terminate the Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV), which is a long-term research and development program designed to counter ballistic missile threats by using several "kill" vehicles launched from a single interceptor, or missile. The Administration will instead focus on proven, near-term missile defense programs that can provide more immediate defenses of the United States, its deployed forces, and allies against ballistic missile attack.

Justification

The primary reason the Administration proposes to terminate this long-term development program is to focus, instead, on proven, near-term missile defense programs, such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense programs. The capabilities of the THAAD and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense programs have been demonstrated through numerous successful flight tests. This termination of MKV will save over $4 billion from 2010 through 2015.

So while there's not much new in today's White House budget announcement versus Gates' previously announced cuts ($1.2 billion Obama cut vs. $1.4 billion Gates cut for missile defense and no additional program cuts introduced), the silver lining must be repeated:

President Obama says that missile defense is Proven.

You've come a long way, baby:

UPDATE: Commenter Ben alerts us to this bombshell that was not in Obama's budget document linked above, but buried in the actual Pentagon budget also submitted today --- the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) has been terminated:

On missile defense, the administration is seeking to buy only a single Airborne Laser aircraft due to "affordability and technology problems," while terminating the Multiple Kill Vehicle effort "because of significant technical challenges," according to the summary. Defense officials said they also terminated the Kinetic Energy Interceptor program because of technological issues.

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Timely BMD Test: Aegis Downs 2 Missiles Off California

USS Benfold launching SM-2

As North Korea nears the brink with the scheduled launch of its longest range ballistic missile, the Aegis destroyer USS Benfold achieved another first for US missile defense --- successful simultaneous intercepts of a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) and a cruise missile:

During the event, Benfold's Aegis Weapons System successfully detected and intercepted a cruise missile target with a SM-2 BLK IIIA, while simultaneously detecting and intercepting an incoming short range ballistic missile (SRBM) target with a modified SM-2 BLK IV. This is the first time the fleet has successfully tested the Aegis system's ability to intercept both an SRBM in terminal phase and a low-altitude cruise missile target at the same time.

While this SM-2 test did not demonstrate the capability to intercept an ICBM (that's the job of larger SM-3's), it once again showed the Navy's skill at fleet protection against Scuds and cruise missiles, the original mission of Aegis.

Combine North Korea's historical tendency to salvo multiple shorter range missiles in tandem with its long range Taepodong tests (as it did in both 1998 and 2006) with the very busy naval action in the Sea of Japan (South Korean, Japanese and US Aegis fleets moving into position) and this successful test could not be more timely.

UPDATE: Random fact about this ship's namesake:

He was killed in action while serving with the First Marine Division in Korea. "For gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty while serving as a Hospital Corpsman, attached to a Company in the First Marine Division during operations against enemy aggressor forces in Korea on 5 September 1952..." he was posthumously awarded the Medal of Honor.

UPDATE (4-17-09): Video added:

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Video: "Unproven" US Missile Defense Scores Another Direct Hit

In a do-over of this scrubbed test (faulty target, not interceptor) from last September, the highly successful Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system now has a hitting streak of 8 for 8 since 1999:

HONOLULU — The military's ground-based mobile missile defense system successfully shot down a medium-range ballistic missile during a test in Hawaii, the Missile Defense Agency said Tuesday.

It was the first time the military fired two interceptors at one target using the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, a program designed to shoot down ballistic missiles in their last stage of flight.

And for the critics who incessantly screech about operational realism, here you go:

In the test, the warhead on the target missile was separated from the rocket motor, requiring the interceptors to distinguish between the two.

The dummy warhead was shot down in its last minutes of flight, [MDA spokesman] Lehner said.

The soldiers who operated the system did not know when the target missile would be launched and more than 20 radars and sensors were employed on the test range to collect flight test data from the interceptor and the target, Lehner said.

I'm kinda getting tired of writing variations of this post's headline (see "Proven" on the left sidebar).

Meanwhile as North Korea readies for launch, the Obama Administration gets ready to specifically target one area of the troubled American economy for a slashing de-stimulation:

James McAleese, who advises companies that produce weapons, said he expects up to $2 billion to be slashed from the $10 billion that had been budgeted for the missile-defense programs — and which Mr. Obama had questioned during the presidential campaign.

UPDATE: Video of the THAAD salvo and intercept by yours truly:

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"MARK INDIA!" = Mark Intercept: GBI Successfully Kills Inbound ICBM In Landmark Test

That Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) flight test I was so worried about yesterday? Success (PDF):

For this exercise, a threat-representative target missile was launched from Kodiak, Alaska at 3:04pm (EST). This long-range ballistic target was tracked by several land- and sea-based radars, which sent targeting information to the interceptor missile. At 3:23pm (EST)the Ground-Based Interceptor was launched from the Ronald W. Reagan Missile Defense Site, located at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The interceptor’s exoatmospheric kill vehicle was carried into the target’s predicted trajectory in space, maneuvered to the target, performed discrimination, and intercepted the threat warhead.

As I mentioned yesterday, this test was tremendously important for several reasons:

• It was the first flight test of the GBI since Sept. 2007.
• GBI's are the interceptors we plan to install in Poland. The US-based GBI tested today is a 3-stage interceptor, while the European-based GBI will be a simpler 2-stage version (basically just the upper 2 stages of today's GBI).
• President-elect Obama has repeatedly said he would only support deploying "proven" missile defense technology to Europe. Okie-freakin-dokie.

Other important achievements of this landmark flight test:

Multiple Sensors Fed the Fire Control:

The target was successfully tracked by a transportable AN/TPY-2 radar located in Juneau, Alaska, a U.S. Navy Aegis BMD ship with SPY-1 radar, the Upgraded Early Warning Radar at Beale Air Force Base, Calif., and the Sea-Based X-band radar. Each sensor sent information to the fire control system, which integrated the data together to provide the most accurate target trajectory for the interceptor.

That's a trucked radar in Juneau (just like the one we just deployed to Israel), an Aegis ship (just like the one that shot down that toxic spy satellite), the massive SBX Sea-Based X-Band radar, and a huge permanent radar in CA (older than the planned Czech radar) --- all working together and feeding the fire control. And speaking of fire control, get this...

Remote Fire Control From Our OTHER Missile Defense Base:

This was the first time an operational crew located at the alternate fire control center at Ft. Greely, Alaska remotely launched the interceptor from Vandenberg AFB.

You know what that means? Any future Polish interceptor base can be networked into our global fire control process in the same way.

So today, the entire West Coast of North America was a massive test range. Naval units, an Army tactical radar, and a huge Air Force radar all supplying targeting data to two interceptor batteries thousands of miles apart with one of those batteries remotely commanding the other as our largest interceptor takes out a hostile ICBM. In space. Ho. Ly. Crap.

And at the end of the day, our hit-to-kill record improves to 37 out of 47 since 2001.

Unproven...

UPDATE: Welcome, Little Green Footballs and Ace of Spades. Be sure to check back later --- video of the intercept should be posted tonight. Someone in the LGF comments pointed to the cool MKV "hover" video --- the middle part with the MKV in the netted cage? All actual footage from this week's test.

UPDATE: Like clockwork, the skeptics descend.

UPDATE: CNN has some initial video of the test ... but you're gonna have to suffer their slant.

UPDATE (12-6-08): FULL VIDEO FOOTAGE directly from MDA, YouTubefied by McKittrick.

Missile Defense: Good News, Bad News

Good News: Just days after North Korea tested a new longer range ICBM engine, Japan had a successful missile intercept in a test of the US-developed PAC-3 Patriot system:

The Japanese air force shot down the dummy missile using Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptors in a ground-to-air test at White Sands, New Mexico, on Wednesday, the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

Bad News: The US scrubbed its own THAAD missile intercept test after the target (not the interceptors) malfunctioned:

It was the first breakdown after five successful tests of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD. Four of the successful test had been conducted with launches from the Pacific Missile Range at Barking Sands and one from White Sands, New Mexico.

The Missile Defense Agency said that because of the failure, the two THAAD interceptor missiles that were to take part in the test were not launched. So the full test was never completed.

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"Because of the target malfunction, the target did not have enough momentum to reach the open ocean area previously approved for safe intercept," she said, adding that the target missile fell into the sea within the safe area.

Oh well, at least we didn't waste a couple of expensive birds...

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(Originally posted at Perfunction; original comment threads are over there)

Video: North Korea Backs Down Thanks To "Unproven" US Missile Defense?

Hearkening back to the role Pres. Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) played in toppling the Soviet Union, one can't help but sense history repeating itself with North Korea's decision to throw in the towel, dismantling its nuclear weapons program:

North Korea submitted a long-delayed declaration of its nuclear program on Thursday, and the Bush administration immediately responded by saying it would remove the country it once described as part of the "axis of evil" from the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism.

The declaration was believed to provide a partial, though important, view of North Korea's nuclear capability, and it marked a significant step forward in a multinational effort to end the country's drive to build nuclear weapons.

While there is no official confirmation that advances in American missile defense technology convinced Kim Jong-Il of the utter futility of pursuing his nuke dream, it is a striking coincidence that the US achieved yet another successful missile intercept test yesterday afternoon, just hours before Kim's announcement:

KAPAA, Hawaii — The U.S. military’s ground-based missile defense system destroyed a missile launched from an airplane Wednesday in the first successful test of the system’s ability to destroy a separating target.

The interceptor missile launched off Kauai had to differentiate between the warhead and the body of the missile before destroying it above the Pacific Ocean, according to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.

Video of the THAAD interceptor launch and colorful infrared hit-to-kill intercept:

Technologically, it was another important milestone for the missile defense program:

"It was an amazing feat," said Col. William Lamb, THAAD project manager for the Missile Defense Agency.

The target had a dummy warhead that separated from its propellant base — another first for the testing program — which increased the challenge for the interceptor to detect and "kill" the correct piece of the target, Lamb said.

Lamb praised the team of Army soldiers from Fort Bliss, Texas, who operated the ground-based launcher that fired the THAAD missile, as well as the radar and command equipment that helped detect and track the target.

The soldiers didn't know when the target would be launched and manually engaged the target, which "brought increased operational realism" to the test, the agency release said.

"The test went very well," Lamb said.

With one of several mobile interceptor batteries deployed in Japan, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) element of our layered missile defense would be among the first to engage North Korean threats. Think of it as Patriot on steroids:

Like the Patriot anti-missile defenses, THAAD is designed to knock out ballistic missiles in their final minute of flight.

Unlike the Patriot system, however, it is designed to intercept targets at higher altitudes, which enables it to defend a larger area.

Obviously, the multilateral Six Party Talks were the immediate impetus for North Korea's decision. But I'd like to think our snowballing successes in missile defense were our negotiators' "Exhibit A":

This was the 35th successful hit-to-kill intercept of 43 attempts in the atmosphere and in space since 2001, and was the 29th of 30 successful tests conducted since September 2005, Missile Defense Agency officials said.

Since we withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty with the nonexistent USSR in 2001, the US has had an 81% success rate. Since 2005? 97%.

But it is UNPROVEN:

UPDATE: Thanks, co-blogger! Welcome, AOSHQ (thanks, Dave).

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(Originally posted at Perfunction; original comment threads are over there)

"Fireball, Fireball, Fireball!"

So blared the intercoms (audio) aboard the USS Lake Erie, alerting the crew to a ballistic missile launch in their patrol area near Hawaii yesterday. Scrambling to their battlestations, the veterans of February's toxic satellite shootdown locked on to the screaming SCUD as it arced through the atmosphere, and quickly launched a salvo of two SM-2 missiles from the Aegis cruiser's forward bays:

"Mark India!" (mark intercept)

Unlike the modified SM-3 hit-to-kill kinetic interceptor launched against the failing spy satellite, this time the Lake Erie fired already-deployed SM-2 interceptors, the Navy's standard air defense missile. It uses an explosive fragmentation warhead to destroy its targets --- which explains the two explosions in the video, the first is the intercept and the other is the second SM-2 self-destructing (range safety!).

The purpose of this test was to demonstrate the Navy's capability to engage ballistic missiles in their terminal phase with off-the-shelf munitions. Think of it as a floating Patriot PAC-3 battery --- our very last chance to splash an incoming missile before it reaches its target city, base or troops in the field:

Over the next 20 months, the military plans to install terminal-phase missile interception capability on all 18 Navy ships equipped with Aegis ballistic missile defenses, Hicks said.

He said the technology would give commanders more options to defend against missiles, particularly if the Patriot missile defense system — a land-based technology designed to shoot down missiles in their final phase of flight — was unavailable.

"If I don't have a Patriot nearby on a shore station to do a short-range threat, near the defended area, I have nothing," Hicks said. "The flexibility of having a ship to complement the Patriot, or to be there when it can't be, is very high on a warfighter priority."

This now-proven Aegis capability complements the short-range Patriots and the longer range THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) batteries, the first of which was just activated (Alpha Battery, 4th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, 11th Air Defense Brigade, 32nd Army Air & Missile Defense Command).

And where did that target SCUD come from? Well, Steven Segal fans, from a decommissioned amphibious assault ship, of course:

The ballistic missile had been fired from the decommissioned helicopter carrier USS Tripoli about 250 miles northwest of Kauai....The Tripoli, which was decommissioned in 1996, also was used as a mobile launch platform last year.

Here's the Tripoli in fighting trim, during three tours of Vietnam and the lead Marine assault ship during peacekeeping operations in Somalia:

And here she is being towed out of San Francisco in her new role as floating launchpad. Note the upright radar dishes and the big tent aft --- that's where the target missile resides:

It's nice to know that the Bauer-esque scenario of a rusty freighter anchored off Chesapeake Bay lobbing first-generation ballistic missiles into the heart of DC has just been tested as well. Well done!

While these successful tests are starting to get old for us missile defense guys, others are certain that these "unproven missile defense systems" should be scrapped ASAP:

UPDATE: Thanks, Ace, Jawas, STACLU, and Doubleplusundead.

UPDATE: To clarify the SM-2's being "off-the-shelf," I meant that the Navy has about 100 SM-2 Block IV missiles in inventory, ready to go. These SAM's were not originally designed for ballistic defense duty, but have been modified for that role. The distinction I was making was between this new stockpile and the heavily modified, one-of-a-kind SM-3 that took down the spy satellite.

UPDATE: Thanks, Free Constitution --- check out his kickass Obama/missile defense remix. Also, Redstate and the bot(?) at the NY Times' Blogrunner.

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(Originally posted at Perfunction; original comment threads are over there)