Closing Velocity

Video: Successful Japanese Aegis BMD Intercept

Yet another direct hit yesterday off Hawaii:

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Meanwhile In China...

Dong Feng (DF-31) ICBMs on Parade

It's early yet, but analysts are feasting on what was (and was not) paraded through Tiananmen Square today on the 60th anniversary of Red China:

The parade is reminiscent of the old Soviet-era May Day parades that bristled with the latest missiles and served as a warning to the US,” said Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief of Defense News.

“For many in the US who watch the Chinese military, this is a real intelligence bonanza. Many of the weapons, particularly missiles, have not been seen by the public before. US intelligence analysts will go nuts over the photos,” he said.

“Of particular concern for the US and Japan was the display of the new road-mobile Dong Feng-31 intercontinental ballistic missile [ICBM],” Minnick said.

“China is clearly signaling to the US it has a nuclear strike capability that can hit Washington. Prior silo-based ICBMs such as the aging DF-5 were unreliable and easy for the US to target. But the new road-mobile ICBMs China is producing will be very difficult to locate during a war,” he said.

Alas, there were some disappointing no-shows:

But there were also clues in what wasn't shown.

Some strategists had expected that China might display a submarine-launched, nuclear-capable ballistic missile, or a new, highest-range land-based ICBM known as the Dongfeng 41.

"So I think that probably says we know these programmes are in development, we know they are close to fruition, they just probably weren't quite to the stage that China was comfortable or motivated to show them in the parade," Durnin said.

DF-21C IRBMs

Of particular concern to missile defense folks and our brand-spanking new focus on short- and-medium range threats are China's theatre missiles:

The DF-11B, DF-15B and DF-21C short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles have all undergone upgrades, with a very clear objective of enhancing their strike accuracy and effective range. For instance, the upgraded variant of the DF-15B short- range ballistic missile has four control fins on the warhead for terminal ballistic correction, and the missile seems to be able to use different types of warheads.

The upgraded version of the DF-21C medium-range ballistic missile seems to have been equipped with a new engine, hence the length of the DF-21C is longer than that of the DF-21. The design concept of the DF-21C is closer to the Soviet Union’s SS-22 medium-range ballistic missile, which uses a more compact launch tube.

The launch vehicle has changed from the towed truck of the baseline version DF-21 to a self-propelled vehicle, with much enhanced cross-field capability. The launch vehicle uses a 10x10 wheeled transport truck.

A priority in the upgrade was to add a terminal guidance system on the DF-21C and at the same time to reinforce the penetration capability to as to confront the U.S.-Japan theater missile defense program. As a result, the DF-21C’s warhead is now equipped with four control fins for terminal stage posture correction. The DF-21C is one of China’s key ballistic missiles targeted at India and Japan.

Lots to chew on... Full gallery of Chinese missile parade pics here.

Japan Considers Formalizing Missile Defense Against North Korea

In the lead up to April's Taepodong-2 launch that overflew its territory, Japan had a hectic debate about what defensive measures it was legally allowed to take under its pacifist constitution to defend itself from an illegally-fired, UN-condemned North Korean ballistic missile (how's that for contrast?).

While it put it's forces on alert and deployed several missile defense assets (Patriot PAC-3 batteries and its entire fleet of Aegis BMD ships), Japan went to great lengths to describe its missile defense deployments as contingencies against ... accidental debris:

Japan took pains Friday to explain that it is preparing for a possible accident, not for an attack. Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said he issued orders "to prepare for an event in which a North Korean projectile falls onto our country in an accident."

The Taepodong-2 ICBM sailed over Japan, landing harmlessly in the Pacific. Keeping with tradition, North Korea proceeded to test salvoes of shorter range missiles over the coming weeks, culminating in two missiles fired on July 2 and seven more on July 4.

With all of this up tempo North Korean missile testing, new revelations about its chemical weapons program, and Japan's previous last minute legal scrambling, the Japanese appear to have realized that perhaps it's a good idea to finally codify their official missile defense policy:

The prime minister, Taro Aso, has been advised by his defence advisers to review the constitution to allow Japan the right to exercise collective self- defence to protect the country amid rising security issues in the region.

The controversial proposal was among a number of steps relating to Japan's military position proposed as part of a five-year government defence plan which is scheduled for completion by the end of the year.

A review of the ban on the exercise of Japan's right to collective self-defence was recommended to enable the nation to shoot down ballistic missiles launched by North Korea and targeting the US.

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Defector: North Korea Tests Chemical Weapons On Disabled Children

US airmen during chemical attack drill, Osan Air Base, South Korea

In a sickening report, a North Korean army officer and commando who defected to the South ten years ago finally reveals a monstrous secret --- which many claim is common knowledge in the DPRK:

When Im Chun-yong made his daring escape from North Korea, with a handful of his special forces men, there were many reasons why the North Korean government was intent on stopping them.

They were, after all, part of Kim Jong-il's elite commandos -- privy to a wealth of military secrets and insights into the workings of the reclusive regime.

But among the accounts they carried with them is one of the most shocking yet to emerge -- namely the use of humans, specifically mentally or physically handicapped children, to test North Korea's biological and chemical weapons.

"If you are born mentally or physically deficient, says Im, the government says your best contribution to society... is as a guinea pig for biological and chemical weapons testing."

Even after settling into the relative safety of South Korea, for 10 years Im held on to this secret, saying it was too horrific to recount.

But with Kim's health reportedly failing, and the country appearing increasingly unpredictable, Im felt it was time he spoke out.

Of course, claims of human testing is not new. Popular Mechanics reported on the North's utilitarian use of political prisoners in 2007:

Former prisoner Lee Sun Ok described one such test before the U.S. House Committee on International Relations: "In February 1990, I was asked by the chief guard to follow him to an administration warehouse ... He ordered me to check out six bundles (five pairs in each bundle) of gas masks with rubber gowns, which looked like a sea diver's kit. When I returned to my prison chamber, a total of 150 prisoners, several from each unit, were selected and separated from the other[s]. The selected prisoners were mostly crippled and weak women who had less labor value."

Later, said Lee, "I saw many prisoners lying on the slope of a hill, bleeding from their mouths and motionless, enveloped by strange fumes and surrounded by scores of guards in the gas masks ... I delivered earlier in the morning."

Why are these atrocities being reported here on a missile defense blog?

While many defense analysts are fixated on North Korea's pursuit of nuclear warhead miniaturization, less attention has been given to their other WMDs --- namely chemical and biological weapons. Tipping their intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) with nukes is a significant challenge (one report claims they have already achieved this feat). But swapping a standard high explosive SCUD warhead with a cannister of toxins? Easy:

Arms experts say at least 30 per cent of North Korea's missile and artillery systems are capable of delivering such [biological and chemcial] weapons. With each successive test, they warn the North's accuracy improves, and so too its range.

The UN Security Council now says it believes three of the seven missiles tested by the North on July 4 were Scud-ER missiles, which are known to be more accurate and have a range of 1,000km.

Tokyo is roughly 1,160km from the base on North Korea's east coast from where the missiles were fired, while other parts of Japan are closer.

So while it can certainly be more sensational to talk about a nuclear ICBM bearing down on Hawaii, the more immediate --- and fully developed and operational --- threat is the potential for toxic missile attacks on the extremely dense population centers in South Korea and Japan.

UPDATE: Commenter 2Hotel9 found a video report of this story on Al-Jazeera:

UPDATE: Welcome, HotAir (thanks, Ed).

BREAKING: North Korea Launches Missile

Details are sketchy right now, but here's first word from WSJ:

North Korea launched a multi-stage rocket Sunday in defiance of international pressure. The rocket passed safely across Japan and over the Pacific Ocean, Japanese authorities said.

The rocket lifted off shortly after 11:30 a.m. local time from a military site in a rural area called Musudan-ri, near the town of Hwadae, on the country's northeast coast, then arced over the Sea of Japan and Pacific Ocean.

There was no immediate word how far the rocket flew or if it made it to space to deliver a satellite, as North Korea said it intended.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE: US and Japanese forces are still on high alert for any follow up launches:

However, the SDF and U.S. forces remain on high alert because North Korea might launch more missiles.

In July 2006, North Korea fired a total of seven missiles, including a Taepodong-2, into the Sea of Japan.

UPDATE (4-5-09): NORAD says the claimed "satellite" did not achieve orbit:

But North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command officials issued a statement disputing any success.

"Stage one of the missile fell into the Sea of Japan," the statement said. "The remaining stages along with the payload itself landed in the Pacific Ocean. No object entered orbit and no debris fell on Japan."

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Japan Sorties 3rd Aegis, JS Kirishima To Pacific Side

Left: North Korean booster drop zones; Right: JS Kirishima leaves port

Following yesterday's deployment of the JS Kongo and JS Chokai to the Sea of Japan, The Mainichi Daily now reports that a third Aegis ship, the JS Kirishima, has left port to take up station in the Pacific:

The Kongo and Chokai, both equipped with Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) sea-based missiles, departed from Sasebo base in Nagasaki Prefecture for the Sea of Japan, while the Kirishima left Yokosuka base in Kanagawa Prefecture for the Pacific Ocean east of Honshu Island.

The Kirishima, which will be equipped with SM-3 missiles next fiscal year, is believed on a mission to track any ballistic missiles launched by North Korea into Japan's airspace and locate where they plunge into the sea.

Without the longer range SM-3's, the Kirishima is really not equipped for a mid-course intercept of North Korea's Taepodong-2. However, she has a magazine of nearly 100 shorter range SM-2 missiles.

Given yesterday's historic SM-2 double intercept off Los Angeles by the USS Benfold, the Kirishima appears to have sufficient air defense capability to take out plummeting boosters or debris heading for Japan.

Japanese Govt. Authorizes Military To Intercept NK Missile/Debris

Left: Japanese Aegis ships Kongo and Chokai; Right: Japanese PAC-3 Battery

It's official: the constitutionally pacifist Japanese government has finished the arduous legal process of allowing its military to act against the North Korean threat:

Japan ordered its military on Friday to destroy a North Korean missile or its debris, if the launch fails and falling pieces of the rocket seem to imperil Japanese territory.

Japan ordered two destroyers equipped with American-built Aegis anti-missile systems into the Sea of Japan, and said it would soon move Patriot land-to-air missiles to the country's northern coast, over which the North Korean rocket is likely to fly.

Ted Postol, permanent fixture and tiresome folk hero of the BMD skeptic crowd, weighs in predictably:

"They are not up to the job," said Theodore Postol, an expert on missile systems and a professor of science, technology and national security policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Like the US, Japan has been methodically testing its ballistic missile defense systems (BMDS) ever since North Korea started aggressively overflying the island nation with its WMD carriers:

• JS Kongo intercepts ballistic missile with SM-3 (video), the first successful test of Aegis BMD by a US ally (Dec. 2007)

• Japanese PAC-3 crew successfully intercepts a target missile at White Sands, NM, another first for a US ally (Sept. 2008)

• JS Chokai fails to intercept. While all the elements of the Aegis BMD performed as expected (radar, fire control, launch, etc.), the SM-3 interceptor failed in the final seconds before intercept (Nov. 2008).

So, a mixed bag, but I wouldn't say "they're not up to the job."

South Korea Depolys Only Aegis Ship To Sea Of Japan

South Korea's Aegis, Sejong the Great

As preparations for North Korea's missile launch continue, the South sends its only missile defense ship to the area:

An official told the South Korean news agency Yonhap an advanced destroyer, the Sejong, "will conduct monitoring activities" in the region. Four U.S. and Japanese destroyers also are patrolling those waters.

The North offers a timid reply:

"The Lee Myung-bak group of traitors is showing themselves in their true color as confrontational maniacs who spread malicious insults at whatever their brethren does," countered the Minju Joson, a newspaper of the North's Cabinet.

BFF!

BREAKING: North Korean Missile Being Stacked

According to NBC News, it's on the launchpad:

North Korea has positioned a Taepodong-2 missile on the launchpad at its facility in Musudan in the east of the country, U.S. officials told NBC News on Wednesday.

According to the U.S. officials, while two stages of the missile can be seen, the top is covered with a shroud supported by a crane.

But now that the missile is on the pad, the launch itself could come within a matter of days, a likelihood that has sparked a flurry of diplomatic activity as the event would be in violation of a U.N. ban prohibiting the country from ballistic activity. Some fear the launch is a cover for the test-fire of long-range missile technology.

South Korean intelligence says the launch window has been narrowed down to April 4th or 5th from the North's public warning of April 4-8. Meanwhile, Japan prepares to intercept.

As for US intercept plans, the Navy left two Aegis missile defense ships behind from the armada sent to the Sea of Japan for war games. Could the US shooter be the USS John S. McCain?

Video: Japan Is Sending A Message To North Korea ... AND Obama

Watching our pusillanimous reaction to this growing threat, Japan makes its position crystal clear to both North Korea and Washington, according to John Bolton: