Closing Velocity

Video: Iran Tests Longest Range Missile, "Leaves North Korea Behind"

Iran continues unimpeded toward perfecting an indigineously designed ICBM:

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran announced Wednesday it successfully test-fired an upgraded version of its longest-range missile, which is capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe and which it said is now faster and harder to shoot down.

Wednesday's test was for the latest version of Iran's most advanced missile, the Sajjil-2, with a range of about 1,200 miles (1,930 kilometers). That range places Israel, Iran's sworn enemy, well within reach, as well as U.S. bases in the Gulf region and parts of southeastern Europe.

The two-stage Sajjil-2 and is powered entirely by solid-fuel while the older, long-range Shahab-3 missile uses a combination of solid and liquid fuel in its most advanced form.

Reporting on the Sajjil-2 breakthrough last August, former head of Israeli missile defense Uzi Rubin predicted the Iranians would be able to hit London very soon:

"If they push it -- put all the budget, put all the engineers -- three or four years" is all it would take to give Iran's existing ballistic missile a range of 3,900 kilometers (2,438 miles), enough to hit London ... "The predictions (about Iran's growing missile reach) are coming true, perhaps sooner than anyone thought," he added in reply to a question after a presentation. "I think there was an underestimation of Iranian capability."

With today's launch, folks should be listening to Rubin:

First, Iran made a quantum leap forward with its missile technology.  The predecessor to the Sejil was the Shahab missile, which was a liquid-fueled single-stage rocket, copied from the North Korean Nodong missile.  The Sejil shows that Iranian engineers have left North Korea behind and are producing indigenous missile technology.  Rubin says the Iranian missile capability has jumped from the type of missiles the U.S. had in the 50’s to the type the US had in the 60’s.

This test also shows Iran ’s aggressiveness with the missile program. “The advance rate is phenomenal,” says Rubin, noting that Iran has now conducted three missile tests in 13 months. It shows just how high a priority missile technology is for the Shiite regime.  Rubin says, “They need to keep testing to prove their past successes were not spurious.”

Back to the Iranians, their defense minister takes a victory lap (AP story):

Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi vowed that the Sajjil-2 would be a "strong deterrent" against any possible foreign attack. He said the new version can be fired more quickly and flies faster than previous ones, though he did not give further details.

"Given its high speed," he said, speaking on state TV, "it is impossible to destroy the missile with anti-missile systems because of its radar-evading ability."

Impossible to destroy? No, not really.

But intercepting the Sajjil-2 is certainly more challenging, especially with a stripped-down European missile defense architecture that focuses exclusively on short- and medium-range missiles. Yesterday's announcement that the US is planning an unprecedented missile defense test against an Iranian ICBM could not be more timely. It will be the first time we've wargamed our longest-range GBI interceptor against an Iranian threat rather than our traditional North Korean scenarios.

And again, one of the two reasons President Obama discarded long-range GBI interceptors in Europe was because of an intelligence assessment claiming the Iranians would not produce ICBMs any time soon. How's that working out for you?

Iranian TV video:

UPDATE: Welcome, HotAir, Ace headlines and No Runny Eggs.

Long-Range Missile Defense To Be Tested Against Iranian Threat

Secretary of Defense Gates inspects a GBI at Ft. Greely, AK

Unlike the recent massive Juniper Cobra missile defense exercise which tested our ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) against short- and medium-range Iranian missile threats, the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) will soon conduct an unprecedented test:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States will test its core missile defenses for the first time in January against a simulated long-range Iranian attack, a top Pentagon official said on Monday, amid tensions with Tehran.

Speaking at the Reuters Aerospace and Defense Summit in Washington, Army Lieutenant General Patrick O'Reilly, the head of the Missile Defense Agency, said the roughly $150 million test was a departure from the more standard scenario of a North Korean attack.

There is a reason that our longest range interceptors, the 3-stage Ground-based Interceptors (GBIs), were first deployed in Alaska and California. Ever since the late 1990s, the North Korean ICBM threat has always been the most immediate one to CONUS. The systems engineering, wargaming, and eventual deployment of GBIs exclusively on the West Coast were specifically executed to counter this growing threat.

Which makes this upcoming test so very remarkable:

It also would be more difficult testing the U.S. Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system against a missile that would be faster and more direct as it races toward the United States than a simulated strike from North Korea.

"Previously, we have been testing the GMD system against a North Korean-type scenario," O'Reilly said.

"This next test ... is more of a head-on shot like you would use defending against an Iranian shot into the United States. So that's the first time that we're now testing in a different scenario."

Now wait one damned minute.

A mere three months ago, President Obama decided to scrap our long-range interceptors in Europe (again, specifically designed to counter Iranian ICBMs bound for the US east coast) because the long-range Iranian threat no longer existed:

The intelligence community now assesses that the threat from Iran's short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, such as the Shahab-3, is developing more rapidly than previously projected.  This poses an increased and more immediate threat to our forces on the European continent, as well as to our allies. On the other hand, our intelligence assessment also now assesses that the threat of potential Iranian intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities has been slower to develop than was estimated in 2006.

If Iraninan ICBMs are no longer a threat, why this test?

Well, the easy answer is we plan these tests years in advance, and this GBI test was laid down long before Obama's pronouncement. That said, there are some disconcerting optics here. Conducting an expensive test against a recently rubbished threat just doesn't look good.

Besides having been on the slate for a while, there's another possible reason for this test.

As I have argued before, Obama's new European BMD architecture may do an adequate job defending Europe from Iranian missile threats, but it does nothing to protect the Eastern United States. Only the long-haul GBIs have the horsepower to engage fast, high-flying ICBMs. While Aegis-based SM-3s and THAADs do an excellent job against short- and medium-range missiles, they simply can't beat the massive GBIs in the ICBM scenario.

Therefore, I'd bet some smarty at MDA doesn't exactly discount the Iranian ICBM threat as readily as the President and the SecDef do. With European-based GBIs now off the table, American-based GBIs must fill the defensive void. Nothing else can do the job, so they damned well better work.

Rather than the standard NK simulation where we fire the target ICBM from Kodiak Island, Alaska and intercept with a GBI from Vandenberg AFB, California, this target will come screaming across the Pacific from Reagan Test Site on Kwajalein Atoll:

The test would fire an interceptor missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California at a simulated incoming missile, launched from the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean. An aide to O'Reilly estimated the cost at about $150 million.

Experts compare the simulation to a bullet hitting another bullet in space. O'Reilly said the goal was to destroy the target over the north central Pacific when the missiles had a combined closing speed of more than 17,000 miles per hour.

"Whenever we have a situation where we're taking on a missile more head on than from the side, that increases the challenges," O'Reilly said.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE (12-16-09): Stay tuned, indeed! --- the Iranians just tested their longest range missile, "leaving North Korea behind." HotAir links.

Iran To Russia: Don't Welch On Those S-300 Missiles

S-300 on parade in Red Square

As the chances for an Israeli airstrike on its burgeoning nuclear weapons program increase, Iran's leaders are getting antsy:

TEHRAN (Reuters) - A senior Iranian military official complained publicly on Friday over Russia's failure to deliver a missile defence system that Washington does not want Iran to have.

Moscow, which is under Western pressure to distance itself from Tehran, has not followed through on proposals to supply high-grade S300 air defence missiles to the Islamic state.

"We are unhappy with the Russian friends up north," said Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces and a member of Iran's Supreme National Security Council in comments carried on state news agency IRNA.

"Why don't the defensive S300 missiles get permission to be sent for the purpose of Iran's defence, as agreed between the two countries? It has been more than six months since they should have been delivered to Iran by Russia."

He added: "Won't the Russian strategists take into consideration Iran's geopolitical importance in the security of this country?"

In Iranian state media, Firouzabadi goes further in castigating the Russians:

Firouzabadi questioned Moscow's motivation for the delay, adding that under a contract signed between the two countries, the Russian government was expected to supply Iran with the system aimed at boosting the country's defensive capabilities.

"The delivery is more than six months overdue," the top general said, urging Russia to expedite the process of delivery.

Iran's Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said on Wednesday that Russia had a 'contractual obligation' to provide Iran with the system.

"We have made a deal with the Kremlin to buy S-300 defense missiles," he said, referring to a contract signed between Tehran and Moscow in 2007.

"We don't think Russian officials would want to be seen in the world as contract violators," he added.

Awwww, that's cute --- Islamofascist Iran lecturing Putin's Russia on the finer points of contract law and capitalism.

Meanwhile as Iran screeches about its right to defend itself against Israeli aggression, its terrorist proxy Hezbollah complains about Israel's own defensive posture:

Nasrallah also lashed out at a major missile defense exercise staged recently by American and Israeli forces to test technology that would protect Israel from a missile attack. U.S. military officials have described it as the most complete air missile defense system done anywhere in the world.

"The Americans are coming, for the first time in decades and perhaps the first time since Israel's existence, to be a field partner in any confrontation that Israel might impose on Gaza, Lebanon, Syria or Iran," he said.

Recap:

Russian missile defense systems in Iran? Awesome.

American-Israeli missile defense systems in Israel? How dare they.

Juniper Cobra 2009 Underway: US & Israel Conduct Massive Missile Defense Drills

Aegis BMD Destroyer USS Decatur (DDG-73) at Haifa, Israel

Delayed a week, Juniper Cobra 10 is now in full swing in Israel:

TEL AVIV — A massive air defence drill under way in Israel will join Israeli and US systems to create the world's most advanced anti-missile umbrella to protect the Jewish state, officials said on Thursday.

The Juniper Cobra 10 exercises, the fifth in a series of joint air defence drills between the allies, began this week and comes amid heightened tension between Israel and arch-foe Iran.

Some 1,000 US soldiers will take part in the two-week exercise combining Israeli and US systems to "create the world's most advanced air defence system to protect our citizens and homes from attack," the commander of Israel's Air Defence Corps, Brigadier General Doron Gavish, told reporters.

Unlike past Juniper Cobras, this one will employ the widest spectrum of missile defense assets yet, including the US's Aegis BMD ships, Patriot PAC-3 batteries, THAAD batteries, the mobile X-Band radar currently stationed in the Negev, and Israel's own Arrow 2 batteries. Interoperability between allied systems is the main goal.

While planned well over two years ago, this iteration of Juniper Cobra is seen as an early indicator of how Obama's new European missile defense plan will take shape:

In this series of exercises we continue to advance our understanding of the art and the science of ballistic ."missile defense," Rear Admiral John Richardson, the U.S. officer overseeing Juniper Cobra, told reporters in Tel Aviv.

"This exercise is not directly related to recent announcements about ballistic missile defense in Europe, but the lessons and the insights that we gain from this exercise will certainly relate to developing that capability."

Admiral Richardson also goes on the dispel the scuttlebutt of the US leaving its missile defense hardware behind in Israel after Juniper Cobra is finished:

None of the American materiel used in the drill will remain in Israel after it winds up in mid-November, they said. But the United States does have a small military garrison at a strategic radar, X-band, stationed in Israel's southern Negev desert.

"The Israel Defense Force can defend Israel alone," Gavish said. "But it is good to know that U.S. capabilities are available."

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Israeli Arrow II Not Launched In Latest Intercept Test Off CA

Details are sketchy right now, but it appears we have a "D'Oh!"on this joint Israeli-US test:

In a test involving three U.S. missile interceptors, Arrow tracked a target missile dropped from a C-17 aircraft, the Pentagon said in a statement. The Israeli system also exchanged data on the target in real-time with elements of the U.S. missile defense system, the statement said.

"Not all test conditions to launch the Arrow Interceptor were met and it was not launched," the Pentagon said.

The US interceptors "invovled" were a Patriot PAC-3, a THAAD, and the USS Benfold, an Aegis BMD destroyer. It appears that the Israeli Arrow II was the planned shooter and all the other assets were on station to exchange sensor and tracking data, which MDA claims met their objectives, including a simulated intercept by Benfold (PDF of MDA's release here).

Interoperability between our allied systems is very important, so it's not a total wash. I would like to know why the Arrow II stayed in its launcher, though.

Video: Trogloditic Nomads Launch Advanced Missile, Unnamed "Top Scientists" Hardest Hit

But...but...just yesterday we were told by unnamed "top scientists" that the woefully benighted Iranians were too backward to ever develop a Europe-striking ballistic missile:

The solid-fuel Sajjil-2 surface-to-surface missile is a new version of the Sajjil missile, which Iran said it successfully tested late last year and has a similar range. Many analysts said the launch of the solid-fuel Sajjil was significant because such missiles are more accurate than liquid fuel missiles of similar range, such as Iran's Shahab-3.

"Defense Minister (Mostafa Mohammad Najjar) has informed me that the Sajjil-2 missile, which has very advanced technology, was launched from Semnan and it landed precisely on the target," state radio quoted Ahmadinejad as saying. He spoke during a visit to the city of Semnan, 125 miles east of the capital Tehran, where Iran's space program is centered.

Video of the primitive Rube Goldberg contraption at which we should be pointing and giggling, according to Top Scientists^tm:

Israel isn't giggling:

Israel said that the new test should be a source of concern for European countries as it meant Iran now had a missile that put them in range as well as the Jewish state.

"In terms of strategic importance, this new missile test doesn't change anything for us since the Iranians already tested a missile with a range of 1,500 kilometres (nearly 950 miles)," said Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon.

"But it should worry the Europeans," Ayalon told public radio.

"The Iranians are also trying to develop a ballistic missile with a range of 10,000 kilometres (6,250 miles) that could reach the coast of the United States."

Nothing to see here, move along:

The study published by the nonpartisan EastWest Institute also said Iran is making advances in rocket technology and could develop a ballistic missile capable of firing a 2,200-pound nuclear warhead up to 1,200 miles "in perhaps six to eight years."

Try six to eight hours after these unnamed Top Scientists^tm published their report. And nonpartisan, my ass.

Israeli BMD Arrow 2 Shoots Down Mock Iranian Missile

Israeli Arrow 2 interceptor launch (undated photo)

As the US guts its own missile defense programs, Israel scores a hit in its latest BMD test:

The Arrow 2 ballistic missile defense system was successfully tested in southern Israel Tuesday morning, when it destroyed a missile simulating an Iranian Shihab 3.

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US Troops In Israel? Safe

With Hamas stirring up the hornet's nest in Gaza, I was thinking about the safety of the American troops manning our recently deployed Forward Based X-Band Transportable (FBX-T) missile defense radar. No worries --- they're out in the Negev Desert ... somewhere:

Hamas-backed militants continued to fire rockets into Israel on Monday, but the U.S. European Command military personnel stationed in the Jewish state are well removed from the areas being targeted, a EUCOM spokesman said.

Since September, a EUCOM team that includes soldiers, airmen and Marines has been working to help Israel set up an early warning radar system aimed at providing protection in the event of a missile attack from Iran.

...

In November, the U.S. radar was in its final round of tests. The system is reportedly capable of tracking a baseball-size object from a distance of 2,900 miles. It is expected to help Israel by enabling it to more rapidly activate its missile-defense system in the event of an attack. At the time, a EUCOM official said the radar should be operational by mid-December.

Such a radar wouldn’t be helpful against the short-range rockets being used by Hamas-backed militants.

Israel Shares Intelligence With NATO About Iranian Missile Threat

On the heels of NATO reiterating its unanimous support for European missile defense, Israeli intelligence visited Brussels:

The information was delivered as part of an intelligence assessment that was prepared in connection with the possibility of deploying an American missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, said the diplomats.

The intelligence was transferred by a team of experts from the Israel Defense Forces, who came to Brussels earlier to debrief their counterparts from NATO, said the diplomats, adding that the focus of the Israeli delegation was on Iranians' efforts to develop the Shahab-4 missile, with a strike range of 3,000 kilometers.

Again, this is the threat European missile defense addresses ... not Russia.

Ahmadinejad's Tehran Times: Concerned About American Welfare, Radars

Why oh why are you heartless Americans spending scarce dollars on defending Israel from the missiles of an unnamed mortal enemy when your own citizens are hurting so? I feel your pain:

"If it were proposed that this fraction of the tax revenues should be allocated to reduce the pains in the hearts of one thousand (US) owners of foreclosed properties in the working class neighborhoods of Chicago or to improve the educational quality of the pathetic school systems in the South Bronx, Bed Stuyvesant of Brooklyn or Spanish Harlem, no doubt the same senators who unanimously voted for the (radar's deployment) would have rejected it outright with no hesitation or mercy."

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(Originally posted at Perfunction; original comment threads are over there)