Closing Velocity

Meanwhile In China...

Dong Feng (DF-31) ICBMs on Parade

It's early yet, but analysts are feasting on what was (and was not) paraded through Tiananmen Square today on the 60th anniversary of Red China:

The parade is reminiscent of the old Soviet-era May Day parades that bristled with the latest missiles and served as a warning to the US,” said Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief of Defense News.

“For many in the US who watch the Chinese military, this is a real intelligence bonanza. Many of the weapons, particularly missiles, have not been seen by the public before. US intelligence analysts will go nuts over the photos,” he said.

“Of particular concern for the US and Japan was the display of the new road-mobile Dong Feng-31 intercontinental ballistic missile [ICBM],” Minnick said.

“China is clearly signaling to the US it has a nuclear strike capability that can hit Washington. Prior silo-based ICBMs such as the aging DF-5 were unreliable and easy for the US to target. But the new road-mobile ICBMs China is producing will be very difficult to locate during a war,” he said.

Alas, there were some disappointing no-shows:

But there were also clues in what wasn't shown.

Some strategists had expected that China might display a submarine-launched, nuclear-capable ballistic missile, or a new, highest-range land-based ICBM known as the Dongfeng 41.

"So I think that probably says we know these programmes are in development, we know they are close to fruition, they just probably weren't quite to the stage that China was comfortable or motivated to show them in the parade," Durnin said.

DF-21C IRBMs

Of particular concern to missile defense folks and our brand-spanking new focus on short- and-medium range threats are China's theatre missiles:

The DF-11B, DF-15B and DF-21C short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles have all undergone upgrades, with a very clear objective of enhancing their strike accuracy and effective range. For instance, the upgraded variant of the DF-15B short- range ballistic missile has four control fins on the warhead for terminal ballistic correction, and the missile seems to be able to use different types of warheads.

The upgraded version of the DF-21C medium-range ballistic missile seems to have been equipped with a new engine, hence the length of the DF-21C is longer than that of the DF-21. The design concept of the DF-21C is closer to the Soviet Union’s SS-22 medium-range ballistic missile, which uses a more compact launch tube.

The launch vehicle has changed from the towed truck of the baseline version DF-21 to a self-propelled vehicle, with much enhanced cross-field capability. The launch vehicle uses a 10x10 wheeled transport truck.

A priority in the upgrade was to add a terminal guidance system on the DF-21C and at the same time to reinforce the penetration capability to as to confront the U.S.-Japan theater missile defense program. As a result, the DF-21C’s warhead is now equipped with four control fins for terminal stage posture correction. The DF-21C is one of China’s key ballistic missiles targeted at India and Japan.

Lots to chew on... Full gallery of Chinese missile parade pics here.

Video: A "Mark India" For ... India

Even though it has been showing signs of partnering with the US recently, India smartly pursues indigenous development of its own missile defense systems:

India staged a missile intercept test Friday as part of a plan to build a defence system against incoming ballistic missiles by 2010, officials said.

Military engineers said the test was a success as a "hostile" missile was destroyed in mid-air over the Bay of Bengal off India's eastern Orissa state.

Friday's test was the third successful trial since 2007 of an air defence system capable of detecting, intercepting and destroying medium- and long-range ballistic missiles, officials said in Orissa capital Bhubaneswar.

Given the Obama Administration's cavalier attitude toward honoring actual mutual defense treaties with actual NATO allies, India is wise to maintain its own BMD effort.

So congrats, India --- prepare to have your successful system ridiculed as unproven ... just like ours!

(P.S.: "Mark India" is US military jargon for "mark intercept.")

What A Perfect Place For A BMD Base, Part II

Back in 2007, I reported on the oh-so-generous Russian offer to lease the US a rusty old radar on Iran's doorstep in lieu of us deploying an X-Band radar to the Czech Republic. Beyond it's terrible tracking position (too close to the threat), the security of Azerbaijan itself is a little dicey.

Fast forward to 2009. With recent news of US-India BMD cooperation, the rumor mill gets whirring at top speed in the neighboring island nation of Sri Lanka with a recent visit by US brass:

JVP parliamentary group leader Anurakumara Dissanayaka Tuesday alleged that the prime motive of the US military delegation was to lay the groundwork for setting up a missile base in Trincomalee.

Refuting the JVP claims, Bogollagama said the US delegation led by Major General Thomas L. Conant had come to Sri Lanka on the government’s request purely on a humanitarian mission.

“The objective of their visit was to engage in school rehabilitation project in the eastern province and not to carry out any military operation in Sri Lanka,” Bogollagama said.

Stressing that no defence agreement was signed by Sri Lanka with the US delegation, the minister said the US Pacific Fleet Command “has no intention of using Sri Lankan territory for the US military activities”.

Akin to Azerbaijan, Sri Lanka is just not a good place for BMD. About the only scenario it which it might be effective would be a ballistic missile threat from the Middle East or Central Asia to ally Australia. And also replaying the essential security risk of Putin's Azeri offer, Sri Lanka isn't exactly the friendly rolling hills of Bohemia --- the rumor mill has us deploying in the middle of a recent warzone with the TAMIL FREAKING TIGERS:

In 2007, Sri Lankan troops recaptured the eastern province that comprises Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Amparai districts from the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

Yes, please. A great location.

India's BMD Plans & Encircling China

From an excellent article at Asia Times:

Beijing cannot be happy about India's anti-missile plans and what this might mean for China's long-term strategic interests in the region. More than anything else, it is the uncertainty of the outcome that is causing it such discomfort. The US seems determined to surround China with US-built anti-missile systems. Using North Korea as a valid excuse at first, the US anti-missile footprint could soon extend from Japan - including Japanese cruisers stationed offshore - and South Korea to Taiwan and India.

And:

In addition, any integration of India into the US global missile defense system, whether it involves interceptors, or the stationing of tracking infrastructure would profoundly affect China's own security.

"China sees this as part of US strategic encirclement of China. This is particularly sensitive for China since its northeast and northwest regions are currently blindspots for US radar systems," said Hagt. "That will disappear with Indian-American missile defense integration. The region would be 'thoroughly exposed', thus vastly decreasing China's 'strategic depth' advantage in this region. This, in essence, would be another 'Poland of the East' in terms of having another overseas missile defense base, this time pointed at China's heart."

Gee, that sounds familiar...

Meanwhile, at sea:

To counter the Asia-Pacific focus of the US Navy, China is reportedly planning to deploy ballistic missiles with non-nuclear warheads and special guidance systems to hit moving surface ships at sea in the western Pacific before they can get within range of Chinese targets. If China fielded such a weapon, one that could reliably sink or cause heavy damage to aircraft carriers and other major warships far from its shores, it would make a potential adversary think long and hard before sending naval forces to intervene in a crisis over Taiwan or any other regional conflict in which China was involved.

It's one thing to hit a large population center or fixed military installation with a ballistic missile. Heck, the Germans did this like clockwork over sixty years ago. But it's quite another challenge to hit a vessel swiftly plying the vast expanses of the Pacific at over 30 knots.

In any case, this potential maritime threat from China just reinforces the tactical need for Aegis BMD, regardless of what happens on the strategic ICBM front.

India & US Continue Ballistic Missile Defense Talks

Pakistan's Ghauri Ballistic Missile

You may have missed it, but the US and India have been quietly cooperating on missile defense for some time. But with the word "purchase" showing up, it appears we're getting close to an actual BMD deal with India:

The FT said Indian officials had been shown computer simulations and had attended live missile tests.

It quoted a US embassy official as saying: "India is a partner of ours, and we want to provide it with whatever it needs to protect itself.

"This fits into the overall strategic partnership we are building."

The paper said no decision had been made by Delhi on the purchase of foreign systems.

Given the (currently) short range of Pakistani ballistic missiles, my best guess is we're talking about Patriot PAC-3 and/or THAAD as Indian interceptors. These batteries would not only provide protection against Pakistani missiles, but also missiles from India's other regional rival, China.

While interceptor batteries are the most visible component of a BMD system --- what with thundering rocket motors! Fire! Plumes! Cool videos! --- it's the boring network of sensors that makes it all work. And if a deal with India gives us the strategic opportunity to position an X-Band radar between Iran, Pakistan and China, well that simply complements the US's global missile defense strategy. The more eyes closer to the missile threats the better, even if our own interceptors are thousands of miles away.

UPDATE: The Pentagon says nothing to see here, move along.

Meanwhile, US Quietly Helps India With Missile Defense

Aside from a few techie leaks in Aviation Week, I really haven't followed the developments in US-India cooperation on missile defense. Apparently, I wasn't alone --- #4 on the list of Foreign Policy magazine's "Top 10 Stories You Missed in 2008":

The controversy over U.S. missile defense these days tends to focus on Russia’s increasingly strident objections to proposed U.S. installations in Eastern Europe. But a more volatile situation might be brewing farther east. On Feb. 27, 2008, after two days of meetings in New Delhi, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates quietly announced negotiations between the United States and India to develop a missile defense program on Indian soil.

With the recent Mumbai terror attacks and their links to a ballistic missile equipped Pakistan (btw, Pakistan is wisely cracking down on the Mumbai plotters camps), Doug Feith further refreshes our memories. We've been talking with India about missile defense since the earliest days of the Bush Administration:

U.S.-Indian strategic cooperation received a boost early on when Jaswant Singh, then serving simultaneously as India's foreign and defense minister, visited Mr. Bush in the Oval Office in April 2001. Mr. Singh highlighted the countries' shared concerns about Asian security, particularly Indian-U.S. joint interests in missile defense.

The latter was a bold point on a controversial Bush administration initiative. Administration officials appreciated that Mr. Singh was signaling India's eagerness to establish common ground with the United States, even at the risk of protests from Russia, India's close friend during the Cold War.

India and Pakistan are the only nuclear/ballistic missile capable adversaries in the world that share a highly contested border (Kashmir). If ever there were a need for missile defense to protect massive population centers in a powderkeg of political and religious rivalry, it is on the Sub-Continent. The next Mumbai could be the final spark.