Closing Velocity

Meanwhile In China...

Dong Feng (DF-31) ICBMs on Parade

It's early yet, but analysts are feasting on what was (and was not) paraded through Tiananmen Square today on the 60th anniversary of Red China:

The parade is reminiscent of the old Soviet-era May Day parades that bristled with the latest missiles and served as a warning to the US,” said Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief of Defense News.

“For many in the US who watch the Chinese military, this is a real intelligence bonanza. Many of the weapons, particularly missiles, have not been seen by the public before. US intelligence analysts will go nuts over the photos,” he said.

“Of particular concern for the US and Japan was the display of the new road-mobile Dong Feng-31 intercontinental ballistic missile [ICBM],” Minnick said.

“China is clearly signaling to the US it has a nuclear strike capability that can hit Washington. Prior silo-based ICBMs such as the aging DF-5 were unreliable and easy for the US to target. But the new road-mobile ICBMs China is producing will be very difficult to locate during a war,” he said.

Alas, there were some disappointing no-shows:

But there were also clues in what wasn't shown.

Some strategists had expected that China might display a submarine-launched, nuclear-capable ballistic missile, or a new, highest-range land-based ICBM known as the Dongfeng 41.

"So I think that probably says we know these programmes are in development, we know they are close to fruition, they just probably weren't quite to the stage that China was comfortable or motivated to show them in the parade," Durnin said.

DF-21C IRBMs

Of particular concern to missile defense folks and our brand-spanking new focus on short- and-medium range threats are China's theatre missiles:

The DF-11B, DF-15B and DF-21C short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles have all undergone upgrades, with a very clear objective of enhancing their strike accuracy and effective range. For instance, the upgraded variant of the DF-15B short- range ballistic missile has four control fins on the warhead for terminal ballistic correction, and the missile seems to be able to use different types of warheads.

The upgraded version of the DF-21C medium-range ballistic missile seems to have been equipped with a new engine, hence the length of the DF-21C is longer than that of the DF-21. The design concept of the DF-21C is closer to the Soviet Union’s SS-22 medium-range ballistic missile, which uses a more compact launch tube.

The launch vehicle has changed from the towed truck of the baseline version DF-21 to a self-propelled vehicle, with much enhanced cross-field capability. The launch vehicle uses a 10x10 wheeled transport truck.

A priority in the upgrade was to add a terminal guidance system on the DF-21C and at the same time to reinforce the penetration capability to as to confront the U.S.-Japan theater missile defense program. As a result, the DF-21C’s warhead is now equipped with four control fins for terminal stage posture correction. The DF-21C is one of China’s key ballistic missiles targeted at India and Japan.

Lots to chew on... Full gallery of Chinese missile parade pics here.

Australia Sides With China On Missile Defense

Rudd Stands With China

In a quiet move this past weekend, Australia's Labor government led by PM Kevin Rudd categorically rejected the concept of national missile defense:

The Rudd Government has split with the United States - and effectively sided with China - by declaring its opposition to the development of national missile defence programs.

In a small section of the 140-page defence white paper - and not the subject of any of the accompanying 83 press releases - the Government said it opposed unilateral defence systems "by any nation because such a system would be at odds with the maintenance of global nuclear deterrence".

While Australia will continue to pursue limited missile defense in the form of tactical systems like Aegis destroyers (it has ordered four), Rudd seems to have pre-emptively surrendered to China and Russia:

But the white paper, published on Saturday, set out a firm stance, saying Australia remained open to limited ballistic missile defences but opposed national programs that would worry nuclear powers - such as Russia and China - by undermining their deterrence capabilities. "We would be especially concerned at developments that might undercut the deterrent value of the strategic nuclear forces of the major nuclear powers, and especially the viability of their second-strike capabilities," the paper said.

Apparently no one told Rudd that our limited missile defenses are designed to counter limited threats (i.e. North Korea, Iran) and rogue launches (i.e. Talibanized Pakistan) and not the massive strategic arsenals of our nuclear peers.

Video: Did I Say "Obama Punts"?

Lou Dobbs wraps up the Obama Administration's foreign policy negligence in a tidy package:

Embedded video from CNN Video

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India's BMD Plans & Encircling China

From an excellent article at Asia Times:

Beijing cannot be happy about India's anti-missile plans and what this might mean for China's long-term strategic interests in the region. More than anything else, it is the uncertainty of the outcome that is causing it such discomfort. The US seems determined to surround China with US-built anti-missile systems. Using North Korea as a valid excuse at first, the US anti-missile footprint could soon extend from Japan - including Japanese cruisers stationed offshore - and South Korea to Taiwan and India.

And:

In addition, any integration of India into the US global missile defense system, whether it involves interceptors, or the stationing of tracking infrastructure would profoundly affect China's own security.

"China sees this as part of US strategic encirclement of China. This is particularly sensitive for China since its northeast and northwest regions are currently blindspots for US radar systems," said Hagt. "That will disappear with Indian-American missile defense integration. The region would be 'thoroughly exposed', thus vastly decreasing China's 'strategic depth' advantage in this region. This, in essence, would be another 'Poland of the East' in terms of having another overseas missile defense base, this time pointed at China's heart."

Gee, that sounds familiar...

Meanwhile, at sea:

To counter the Asia-Pacific focus of the US Navy, China is reportedly planning to deploy ballistic missiles with non-nuclear warheads and special guidance systems to hit moving surface ships at sea in the western Pacific before they can get within range of Chinese targets. If China fielded such a weapon, one that could reliably sink or cause heavy damage to aircraft carriers and other major warships far from its shores, it would make a potential adversary think long and hard before sending naval forces to intervene in a crisis over Taiwan or any other regional conflict in which China was involved.

It's one thing to hit a large population center or fixed military installation with a ballistic missile. Heck, the Germans did this like clockwork over sixty years ago. But it's quite another challenge to hit a vessel swiftly plying the vast expanses of the Pacific at over 30 knots.

In any case, this potential maritime threat from China just reinforces the tactical need for Aegis BMD, regardless of what happens on the strategic ICBM front.

Great: Russian Paranoia Over US Missile Defense Spreads To China

It was only a matter of time:

"The sides are expected to express their attitudes to the creation and deployment of the U.S. missile defense systems, both on a regional and global scale," the source said.

"China shares Russia's viewpoint on the U.S. plans and practical actions aimed at deploying its ABM systems in Eastern Europe, which threaten security and stability in the world," the source said.

"The meeting will also address the creation of a regional missile defense system in Asia and the Pacific involving the U.S, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Taiwan," the source said.

"China is extremely negative about the creation of such a system, especially in the light of Taiwan's joining it and the contracts for the supply of U.S. radar stations to Taibei."

Same song, different dance --- just swap "Iran" with "North Korea" as the threat we're worried about ... not Russia OR China.