Closing Velocity

Long-Range Missile Defense To Be Tested Against Iranian Threat

Secretary of Defense Gates inspects a GBI at Ft. Greely, AK

Unlike the recent massive Juniper Cobra missile defense exercise which tested our ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) against short- and medium-range Iranian missile threats, the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) will soon conduct an unprecedented test:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States will test its core missile defenses for the first time in January against a simulated long-range Iranian attack, a top Pentagon official said on Monday, amid tensions with Tehran.

Speaking at the Reuters Aerospace and Defense Summit in Washington, Army Lieutenant General Patrick O'Reilly, the head of the Missile Defense Agency, said the roughly $150 million test was a departure from the more standard scenario of a North Korean attack.

There is a reason that our longest range interceptors, the 3-stage Ground-based Interceptors (GBIs), were first deployed in Alaska and California. Ever since the late 1990s, the North Korean ICBM threat has always been the most immediate one to CONUS. The systems engineering, wargaming, and eventual deployment of GBIs exclusively on the West Coast were specifically executed to counter this growing threat.

Which makes this upcoming test so very remarkable:

It also would be more difficult testing the U.S. Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system against a missile that would be faster and more direct as it races toward the United States than a simulated strike from North Korea.

"Previously, we have been testing the GMD system against a North Korean-type scenario," O'Reilly said.

"This next test ... is more of a head-on shot like you would use defending against an Iranian shot into the United States. So that's the first time that we're now testing in a different scenario."

Now wait one damned minute.

A mere three months ago, President Obama decided to scrap our long-range interceptors in Europe (again, specifically designed to counter Iranian ICBMs bound for the US east coast) because the long-range Iranian threat no longer existed:

The intelligence community now assesses that the threat from Iran's short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, such as the Shahab-3, is developing more rapidly than previously projected.  This poses an increased and more immediate threat to our forces on the European continent, as well as to our allies. On the other hand, our intelligence assessment also now assesses that the threat of potential Iranian intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities has been slower to develop than was estimated in 2006.

If Iraninan ICBMs are no longer a threat, why this test?

Well, the easy answer is we plan these tests years in advance, and this GBI test was laid down long before Obama's pronouncement. That said, there are some disconcerting optics here. Conducting an expensive test against a recently rubbished threat just doesn't look good.

Besides having been on the slate for a while, there's another possible reason for this test.

As I have argued before, Obama's new European BMD architecture may do an adequate job defending Europe from Iranian missile threats, but it does nothing to protect the Eastern United States. Only the long-haul GBIs have the horsepower to engage fast, high-flying ICBMs. While Aegis-based SM-3s and THAADs do an excellent job against short- and medium-range missiles, they simply can't beat the massive GBIs in the ICBM scenario.

Therefore, I'd bet some smarty at MDA doesn't exactly discount the Iranian ICBM threat as readily as the President and the SecDef do. With European-based GBIs now off the table, American-based GBIs must fill the defensive void. Nothing else can do the job, so they damned well better work.

Rather than the standard NK simulation where we fire the target ICBM from Kodiak Island, Alaska and intercept with a GBI from Vandenberg AFB, California, this target will come screaming across the Pacific from Reagan Test Site on Kwajalein Atoll:

The test would fire an interceptor missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California at a simulated incoming missile, launched from the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean. An aide to O'Reilly estimated the cost at about $150 million.

Experts compare the simulation to a bullet hitting another bullet in space. O'Reilly said the goal was to destroy the target over the north central Pacific when the missiles had a combined closing speed of more than 17,000 miles per hour.

"Whenever we have a situation where we're taking on a missile more head on than from the side, that increases the challenges," O'Reilly said.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE (12-16-09): Stay tuned, indeed! --- the Iranians just tested their longest range missile, "leaving North Korea behind." HotAir links.

Video: Successful Japanese Aegis BMD Intercept

Yet another direct hit yesterday off Hawaii:

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Biden: SM-3 Interceptors To Be Installed In Poland

Former Redzikowo Airbase, Poland

At the very same shuttered airbase that would have housed the siloed Ground-based Interceptors (GBIs) originally planned:

Biden was presenting a revamped U.S. missile shield replacing a scrapped Bush-era project that would have placed 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic to intercept long-range missiles from Iran. His one-day visit to Bucharest was part of a swing through eastern Europe designed to reassure Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic — all staunch U.S. allies — that America's commitment to the region remains strong.

The Obama plan would include SM-3 anti-ballistic missiles at a former air base in the Polish town of Redzikowo, the same site that was to host U.S. missile interceptors in underground silos under the Bush plan.

How does this exact same geographic deployment of missile interceptors not irritate the Russians? Easy:

Moscow perceives the new plan as less threatening because it would not initially involve interceptors capable of shooting down Russia's intercontinental ballistic missiles, experts say.

Sounds nice, but two things jump out:

1.  While these initial SM-3's can't down Russian ICBMs, ummmm, they also can't down Iranian ICBMs. McKittrick's broken record time: the original Euro BMD plan was designed to defend the eastern seaboard of the US against ICBMs launched from the Middle East. Obama's new plan does not have this capability. But... but... it will, assert the new plan backers, those next generation SM-3's will be able to defend the US against ICBMs! Really? Interesting, because

2.  Which do you think the Russians would be more concerned about, ten (ten!) highly-visible, immobile & siloed GBI's in Poland or several hundred SM-3 Block IIB interceptors parked in mobile launchers on land and at sea in and around Europe? Interceptors specifically tasked with countering massive raid size ICBM attacks?

Don't get me wrong --- I look forward to the new SM-3's, and the more the better. But I don't agree with the wisdom to scrap the GBIs. Our missile defense doctrine has always been to have a layered defense with multiple platforms able to engage threats at all the different phases of ballistic flight. Stripping out GBIs from this layered approach is a mistake.

Juniper Cobra 2009 Underway: US & Israel Conduct Massive Missile Defense Drills

Aegis BMD Destroyer USS Decatur (DDG-73) at Haifa, Israel

Delayed a week, Juniper Cobra 10 is now in full swing in Israel:

TEL AVIV — A massive air defence drill under way in Israel will join Israeli and US systems to create the world's most advanced anti-missile umbrella to protect the Jewish state, officials said on Thursday.

The Juniper Cobra 10 exercises, the fifth in a series of joint air defence drills between the allies, began this week and comes amid heightened tension between Israel and arch-foe Iran.

Some 1,000 US soldiers will take part in the two-week exercise combining Israeli and US systems to "create the world's most advanced air defence system to protect our citizens and homes from attack," the commander of Israel's Air Defence Corps, Brigadier General Doron Gavish, told reporters.

Unlike past Juniper Cobras, this one will employ the widest spectrum of missile defense assets yet, including the US's Aegis BMD ships, Patriot PAC-3 batteries, THAAD batteries, the mobile X-Band radar currently stationed in the Negev, and Israel's own Arrow 2 batteries. Interoperability between allied systems is the main goal.

While planned well over two years ago, this iteration of Juniper Cobra is seen as an early indicator of how Obama's new European missile defense plan will take shape:

In this series of exercises we continue to advance our understanding of the art and the science of ballistic ."missile defense," Rear Admiral John Richardson, the U.S. officer overseeing Juniper Cobra, told reporters in Tel Aviv.

"This exercise is not directly related to recent announcements about ballistic missile defense in Europe, but the lessons and the insights that we gain from this exercise will certainly relate to developing that capability."

Admiral Richardson also goes on the dispel the scuttlebutt of the US leaving its missile defense hardware behind in Israel after Juniper Cobra is finished:

None of the American materiel used in the drill will remain in Israel after it winds up in mid-November, they said. But the United States does have a small military garrison at a strategic radar, X-band, stationed in Israel's southern Negev desert.

"The Israel Defense Force can defend Israel alone," Gavish said. "But it is good to know that U.S. capabilities are available."

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Video: Surprise: Russian Paranoia Over Missile Defense Continues, US To Place Aegis BMD Ships "In The Arctic"

Aegis cruiser USS Ticonderoga in rough seas

In the days after Obama's surprise introduction of his new European missile defense plan, many wondered how the Russians would react. The conventional wisdom quickly settled on the "Obama as Chessmaster" view, in which his pragmatic swapping of fixed, ground-based interceptors (GBIs) & radar in Eastern Europe for mobile SM-3's oh-so-cleverly brought the Russians to our side right before Obama dropped the bomb on Iran at the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh. Brilliant! A masterstroke! (crowing video here) 

I had a different take:

Does anyone really believe the Russians will suddenly be all hunky-dory over a new land-based system after their screeching just successfully killed the old one? Dream on.

For a refresher on what will change under Obama's plan, here are two key highlights from the Pentagon briefing. In the first clip, Gen. Cartwright describes the future SM-3-based system (sea- and land-based), its global mobility, its "substantial capability" against ICBMs, and the geometric increase in interceptor inventory it enjoys. The second half is Gates talking about Russia:

So we're ditching 10 siloed interceptors in a tiny, easily monitored, fixed location in Poland ... for hundreds of extremely mobile ones --- specifically designed to counter massive ICBM missile raids --- in and around Europe both at sea and (probably) on mobile ground launchers. Yep, the Russians will absolutely love that.

What's that? They don't?

You mean the guy who originally touted the nefarious Polish GBI-as-nuke scenario that Gates described above has a new paranoid conspiracy? Why, yes. Yes, he does --- American missile defense ships in the Arctic countering Russia's ICBMs:

[Russia's ambassador to NATO] Dmitry Rogozin's comments showed Moscow's distrust as it awaits details on Pentagon plans to create new mobile interceptor missiles, dropping an earlier U.S. scheme to set up fixed bases in Poland and the Czech Republic.

"Where are the guarantees that this mobile thing, be it a boat, a cruiser, or a battleship with a mounted missile-defense system and with missile interceptors, will not sail into our northern seas?" Rogozin said at a press briefing.

Wait a tick: what about the Arctic permapack and Ice Station Zebra and all that, you ask? How can American Aegis cruisers ply the rock hard Arctic Ocean, Dmitry? Easy, he explains:

He added that the reduction of sea ice in Arctic due to climate change could lead to the all-year-round opening of the Northern Sea Route, is a shipping lane running along Russia's Far Eastern and Siberian coasts that is usually only free of ice for around eight weeks a year.

"The ice would retreat, it would melt, which means that NATO would definitely be present in the Arctic. They have been planning it for a long time, and under the very bad circumstances the U.S. strategic missile defense would arrive there onboard these ships," Rogozin said.

Global warming --- is there anything it can't do?

Free Tour: Aegis BMD Ship Open To Public, This Weekend Only

With Thursday's latest Aegis intercept, what great time to check out our most successful ballistic missile defense (BMD) platform.  The USS Benfold, itself a recent BMD history maker, is docked at Seal Beach and open for free public tours today and tomorrow only:

The ship is the USS Benfold, the date was March 26, 2009, the place was the Pacific Ocean--not off the coast of either of the Koreas, and the attacking missiles, while real missiles, were not armed. This was the US Navy's exercise Stellar Dagger and it was the first time the fleet has successfully tested the Aegis shipboard system's ability to intercept both a short range ballistic missile in reentry phase and a low-altitude cruise missile target at the same time.

The Benfold will be open for weekend public visitation, with Saturday (8/1/09) tours given from 10:00 am to 2:30 p.m., and Sunday (8/2/09) tours provided from 10:00 am to 1:30 pm. Displays of other Navy, Marine Corps and Army equipment will also be available.

Man, I wish I was out there to see it!

Please, any SoCal readers who take advantage of this rare opportunity, shoot me some pics and observations. I know it's short notice (likely a security measure), but if anyone can make a Benfold tour this weekend, I'll jealously post your stuff pronto.

Video: "Stellar Avenger": Aegis Destroyer USS Hopper Intercepts Missile Off Hawaii

"A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what a ship is built for." --- Rear Admiral Grace Hopper, namesake of the US Navy's latest successful missile defense shooter.

Yesterday afternoon, outside the atmosphere 100 miles above Hawaii, an interceptor launched from the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) destroyer USS Hopper(DDG 70) achieved a direct hit on an inbound ballistic missile:

The latest US missile defence test, conducted last night in Hawaii waters, was deemed a success as tensions continue with North Korea over that country's missile programme.

A short-range ballistic missile was fired from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on the island of Kauai and then was shot down by a three-stage interceptor missile from a destroyer, the USS Hopper.

The test, conducted by the Navy and the Department of Defense's Missile Defence Agency, marked the 23rd firing by ships equipped with the Aegis ballistic missile defense system.

With the latest test, there have been 19 successes, including the shooting down of a dead US spy satellite last year.

Joining the Hopper on "Stellar Avenger" were two other Aegis ships, the destroyer USS O'Kane(DDG 77) and the rock star of last year's satellite shootdown, the cruiser USS Lake Erie (CG 70). Side note: the month before Lake Erie's sat shot, Hopper nearly opened fire on a swarm of Iranian gunboats in the Straits of Hormuz (video). She's a multitasker.

While Hopper gets bragging rights for the intercept, the other Aegis ships got the opportunity to test their own missile defense systems, tracking the target missile, developing firing solutions, and simulating their own intercepts. A second target missile was fired for Lake Erie--- the long-time Aegis BMD testing "flagship" --- to test the newest upgrade to the Aegis system (4.0.1). No intercept was planned for the second target and no interceptors were launched. Here's Hopper popping her target:

"If you do something once, people will call it an accident. If you do it twice, they call it a coincidence. But do it a third time and you've just proven a natural law!" --- Grace Hopper

And what exactly does 19 for 23 mean, my missile defense skeptics? Congrats, crew of the Hopper!

UPDATE (8-1-09): Want to see an Aegis ship up close and personal? Here's your chance, today and tomorrow only in Los Angeles.

Israeli Arrow II Not Launched In Latest Intercept Test Off CA

Details are sketchy right now, but it appears we have a "D'Oh!"on this joint Israeli-US test:

In a test involving three U.S. missile interceptors, Arrow tracked a target missile dropped from a C-17 aircraft, the Pentagon said in a statement. The Israeli system also exchanged data on the target in real-time with elements of the U.S. missile defense system, the statement said.

"Not all test conditions to launch the Arrow Interceptor were met and it was not launched," the Pentagon said.

The US interceptors "invovled" were a Patriot PAC-3, a THAAD, and the USS Benfold, an Aegis BMD destroyer. It appears that the Israeli Arrow II was the planned shooter and all the other assets were on station to exchange sensor and tracking data, which MDA claims met their objectives, including a simulated intercept by Benfold (PDF of MDA's release here).

Interoperability between our allied systems is very important, so it's not a total wash. I would like to know why the Arrow II stayed in its launcher, though.

BREAKING: Obama Admits Missile Defense is PROVEN

While it is unfortunate that his administration is terminating and reducing several missile defense projects, Obama's announced budget cuts today are rather historic --- missile defense has officially been deemed PROVEN by the President (PDF):

TERMINATION: MULTIPLE KILL VEHICLE PROGRAM; Department of Defense

The Administration proposes to terminate the Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV), which is a long-term research and development program designed to counter ballistic missile threats by using several "kill" vehicles launched from a single interceptor, or missile. The Administration will instead focus on proven, near-term missile defense programs that can provide more immediate defenses of the United States, its deployed forces, and allies against ballistic missile attack.

Justification

The primary reason the Administration proposes to terminate this long-term development program is to focus, instead, on proven, near-term missile defense programs, such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense programs. The capabilities of the THAAD and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense programs have been demonstrated through numerous successful flight tests. This termination of MKV will save over $4 billion from 2010 through 2015.

So while there's not much new in today's White House budget announcement versus Gates' previously announced cuts ($1.2 billion Obama cut vs. $1.4 billion Gates cut for missile defense and no additional program cuts introduced), the silver lining must be repeated:

President Obama says that missile defense is Proven.

You've come a long way, baby:

UPDATE: Commenter Ben alerts us to this bombshell that was not in Obama's budget document linked above, but buried in the actual Pentagon budget also submitted today --- the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) has been terminated:

On missile defense, the administration is seeking to buy only a single Airborne Laser aircraft due to "affordability and technology problems," while terminating the Multiple Kill Vehicle effort "because of significant technical challenges," according to the summary. Defense officials said they also terminated the Kinetic Energy Interceptor program because of technological issues.

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Video: US Navy "Stellar Daggers" Missile Defense Test

New video from last month's first ever double intercept of a short-range ballistic missile and a cruise missile by the Aegis destroyer USS Benfold off the coast of Los Angeles:

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