Yep, given Obama's recent prostration before the Russians, this will get far:
KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine has begun talks with the United States on the possibility of Washington using information gathered by its radars, Interfax Ukraine cited Kiev's envoy as saying on Thursday.
The news is likely to irk Russia, which is highly sensitive to any hint of U.S. military partnership with former Soviet republics.
Washington last week denied it wanted to station U.S. radar systems in Ukraine, after President Barack Obama scrapped a planned missile shield based in central Europe.
Just last week, Washington and Kiev had to furiously backpeddle when US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Alexander Vershbow first let the cat out of the bag:
WASHINGTON — The United States on Friday sought to reassure Russia that Washington had no plans to deploy radars or weaponry in Ukraine as part of its new missile defense plan.
The Defense Department was forced to clarify its plans after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced concern over the new missile shield and said a report that Ukraine might be part of the system was "rather unexpected."
US Assistant Secretary of Defense Alexander Vershbow had told reporters on Thursday that Ukraine and other countries have expressed an interest in hosting a radar site for the shield.
But the Pentagon said: "He (Vershbow) did not make any reference to the stationing of US radars or any other missile defense systems on the territory of Ukraine, and no such proposal has been made to the government of Ukraine."
Granted, this news got screaming headlines in the Ukraine and Russia last week, but that was because it appeared the US was simply going to set up its own radars --- with its own personnel --- on Russia's doorstep. That's not the case:
The announcement made headlines in Ukrainian media. Some analysts and politicians were quick to point out that the Ukrainian constitution forbids hosting foreign military facilities. President Viktor Yushchenko was quick to say that the US never made any suggestions on those lines.
Now it appears that, rather than hosting an American radar, Ukraine will offer one it already has to become part of the system. It currently possesses two long-range radars, one in the capital of Crimea, Sevastopol, and another one in the city Mukachevo in western Ukraine. [ed --- see map above]
On the one hand, since Russia itself has repeatedly offered the US use of two of its own missile defense radars at Gabala, Azerbaijan and Armavir (instead of the one planned for Brdy, Czech Republic), one would think Russia would have no problem with the US utilizing a similar arrangement with the Ukraine. On the other hand, one would be dreadfully wrong.
Lest the aura of Nobel prizes have temporarily blinded you, let me remind you that Russia just successfully cowed Obama into giving up long-planned missile defense sites in the territories of two stalwart NATO Allies, the Czech Republic and Poland. Ukraine was a former Soviet Republic (not a satellite), is a NATO aspirant (not a member), and oh yeah, home to the frickin' Russian Black Sea Fleet. Yup, Putin will have zero problem with this Ukrainian radar scheme.
In the meantime, the Ukrainians are enjoying this small opportunity to poke the bear in the eye:
[Ukrainian Ambassador to the US] Shamshur suggested Russia had missed its chance to use information from Ukrainian radars. Russia canceled a post-Soviet radar data sharing deal last year, complaining the installations in Ukraine were outdated.
"We are also talking about the question of using our defense radars across Ukraine's territory, which, as you all know, Russia has declined to use," Shamshur was cited as saying.
The Ukrainians are playing a very dangerous game here, and in an apparent attempt to soothe eastern European fears over his recent retreat, Obama could also provoke Moscow much more intensely than the old Bush missile defense plan ever did.
Indeed, to appreciate the gravity of the Ukrainian situtation, be sure to check out this must read article on the poisonous climate of Russian-Ukrainian relations:
In August, Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, gave his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yushchenko, an unprecedented diplomatic mugging. In a seething letter, and subsequent video message, Medvedev reprimanded Yushchenko for his "anti-Russian" stance. He told him that, as far as Russia was concerned, the pro-western Yushchenko was now a non-person.
After reeling off a list of grievances, Medvedev said he would not be sending an ambassador to Kiev. He also said he was reviewing Russia and Ukraine's 1997 friendship treaty – a hint that Moscow may no longer respect Ukraine's sovereign borders. The message was blunt: whoever wins Ukraine's presidential election in January has to accept Russia's veto over the country's strategic direction.
And what is ground zero of all this Russian animosity? Why, the Crimea --- site of one of those Ukrainian missile defense radars:
The flashpoint, Gorbulin says, is Crimea, the lush peninsula beloved by 19th-century Russian writers and Soviet tourists. It is Ukraine's only Russian-majority province. It is also the home of Russia's Black Sea fleet – anchored just around the coast from Yalta in the historic port of Sevastopol. Under the terms of a lease agreement with Ukraine, Russia is supposed to vacate the base in 2017. But it doesn't want to.
In recent weeks, pro-Kremlin newspapers have been speculating that Crimea might soon be "reunited" with mother Russia, solving the fleet issue. The best-selling Komsomolskaya Pravda even printed a map showing Europe in 2015. The Russian Federation had swallowed Crimea, together with eastern and central Ukraine. Ukraine still existed, but it was a small chunk of territory around the western town of Lviv.
Georgia is peanuts compared to the Ukraine ... especially now that the Russians are considering nuclear first-strikes against neighbors even during a conventional war.
With the humiliating betrayal of allies coupled with this clueless thwacking of a Ukrainian hornet's nest, Obama appears to be blindly stumbling into what may become a very ugly European crisis.
Funny, I was reading today about how the Obama administration is still planning to deploy SM-3 and Patriot missiles in Poland. I do wonder why you failed to mention that. I'm sure it's not because, in your eyes, the Obama administration can do no right.
The change from GMD to SM-3s seems to me a cost-cutting measure, based on a changed assessment of future Iranian missile capabilities. They are still a long way from having nuclear weapons, much less a nuclear weapon small enough to fit on an ICBM. Thus, it makes sense to deploy cheaper SM-3s now, while continuing development of GMD, which BTW is still deployed at Fort Greeley and Vandenberg. The fact that the Russians made noises about being happy was, I think, a bonus.
And of course, I suppose some people still have dreams of countering the arsenal of 1000s of Russian ICBMs, but realistically I think we all know that will have to wait until we can bring costs down, which is a reason for continued R&D.
Posted by: Ed | October 20, 2009 at 02:41 PM
Joe Biden was sent to Poland, Czech Rep. and Romania on a mission to present new plans to local leaders. Patriots seem in, and soon, and SM-3 are going to follow later. For now SM-3 on the ships will have to do.
Russia will be less furious for the mobile BMD can be withdrawn under pressure, which they perceive Obama is vulnerable to. Ironically multiple mobile launchers of BMD are worse prospect for Russias strategic missile forces from military vievpoint...
Anyway setting a foot (or boots on the ground) into Ukraine would be turning every red light in the FSB (ex-KGB), and Russian military on and making AWOOGA! sounds.
With history of 2 land invasions from the west in XX century Russia is a bit vindicated with its paranoia...
And with history of almost 300 years of russian occupation with short intervals of independence, Poland's paranoia about russia is even more vindicated.
Advice? thread with care, but carry a big stick.
Posted by: ewok40k | October 21, 2009 at 06:59 AM
Funny, I was reading today about how the Obama administration is still planning to deploy SM-3 and Patriot missiles in Poland. I do wonder why you failed to mention that. I'm sure it's not because, in your eyes, the Obama administration can do no right.
Perhaps I didn't mention it in concert with your own reading schedule because, oh, I've been talking about Obama's new Euro BMD plan for the past freaking month. So very sorry.
Since you just popped in, take a chance to scroll back and you'll find I've mentioned plenty about the new Euro BMD configuration and how it specifically a) does NOTHING to defend the US-proper (which was the original mission of Bush's plan) and b) has the potential to antagonize the Russians even more than Bush's plan ever could --- namely its potential to defend against raid size ICBM attacks. This capability was specifically mentioned by Cartwright in his Pentagon briefing when the new plan was rolled out a month ago. Keep up, Ed.
Posted by: John McKittrick | October 22, 2009 at 09:52 AM
Well, Iranians do not have the means to attack US itself for now, but they have the means to hit Europe. BTW French started advertising ASTER based tactical ABM capability in Polish military press, you can interpret it as you wish... Anyway Europe with local ABM is better than without any, and let me add US bases from Incirlik to Bitburg would be protected too.
As for Russians, their strategic policy thinking is the US is OPFOR, not Europe. They are making big $$ from trading with Europe, and Europe isn't a unipolar hyperpower they seek to counteract. In their thinking their ICBM force isnt deterrent against Europe but US.
What I can only hope for, is civilized nations - Russia and eventually China included - getting rid of MAD in era of advanced BMD, and creating a safer world for our children...
Posted by: ewok40k | October 22, 2009 at 11:17 AM