Former Redzikowo Airbase, Poland
At the very same shuttered airbase that would have housed the siloed Ground-based Interceptors (GBIs) originally planned:
Biden was presenting a revamped U.S. missile shield replacing a scrapped Bush-era project that would have placed 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic to intercept long-range missiles from Iran. His one-day visit to Bucharest was part of a swing through eastern Europe designed to reassure Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic — all staunch U.S. allies — that America's commitment to the region remains strong.
The Obama plan would include SM-3 anti-ballistic missiles at a former air base in the Polish town of Redzikowo, the same site that was to host U.S. missile interceptors in underground silos under the Bush plan.
How does this exact same geographic deployment of missile interceptors not irritate the Russians? Easy:
Moscow perceives the new plan as less threatening because it would not initially involve interceptors capable of shooting down Russia's intercontinental ballistic missiles, experts say.
Sounds nice, but two things jump out:
1. While these initial SM-3's can't down Russian ICBMs, ummmm, they also can't down Iranian ICBMs. McKittrick's broken record time: the original Euro BMD plan was designed to defend the eastern seaboard of the US against ICBMs launched from the Middle East. Obama's new plan does not have this capability. But... but... it will, assert the new plan backers, those next generation SM-3's will be able to defend the US against ICBMs! Really? Interesting, because
2. Which do you think the Russians would be more concerned about, ten (ten!) highly-visible, immobile & siloed GBI's in Poland or several hundred SM-3 Block IIB interceptors parked in mobile launchers on land and at sea in and around Europe? Interceptors specifically tasked with countering massive raid size ICBM attacks?
Don't get me wrong --- I look forward to the new SM-3's, and the more the better. But I don't agree with the wisdom to scrap the GBIs. Our missile defense doctrine has always been to have a layered defense with multiple platforms able to engage threats at all the different phases of ballistic flight. Stripping out GBIs from this layered approach is a mistake.
Exactly how the hell is Barri going to get an Aegis missile Cruiser/Destroyer into southern Poland? He got fucking magical flying beans or some shit?!?!?
Posted by: 2Hotel9 | October 23, 2009 at 06:29 AM
RTFA, 2H9. They're going to be land-based... i.e. they will not be on ships.
I fail to see why we need to deploy GMD in the near future. 1) Iran doesn't have nukes yet, 2) Iran doesn't have ICBMs yet, 3) Iran doesn't have nukes small enough to fit on ICBMs yet. So why should we antagonize the Russians for no reason? I understand why SM-3s and Patriots are going to Poland, to reassure our NATO allies, OK. But if we can put off poking the bear (with GMD) until we actually need to, then that seems good to me.
If there was an urgent need, like with North Korea, then OK, immediate GMD deployment might be warranted. But there is no urgent need.
Posted by: Ed | October 23, 2009 at 11:43 AM
Well, Russia doesnt use its ICBM force as deterrence against Europe but USA. Ergo system that protects Europe not USA is not a threat to this deterrence.
Iran has some missiles which reach well into Central Europe (look for maps elsewhere on this site), and while it has no nukes yet nor sure way to create reliable warhead for missiles, its better to err on side of sfety. Plus, it will take some time to deploy system fully - until 2018 AFAIK at least. And sensor network would be useful for any US based missile defence too as early warning.
Posted by: ewok40k | October 23, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Ed, Deployment takes time. We'd have GBI based stuff ready several years earlier than this pie in the sky Land Based SM-3 proposal; which won't be ready till 2018; and that's not even beginning to address the issues of systems integration for a land based firing unit.
In effect, Team Obama is taking a gamble -- a gamble that Iranian or North Korean ICBM development will hit a snag and slow down.
I don't like gambling with national security.
Posted by: Ryan Crierie | October 23, 2009 at 03:51 PM
So can we have both, Barry commits to this and a 2010 Republican Congress forces a deployment (or preparation therefor) for a GBI install.
Posted by: Jean | October 24, 2009 at 09:59 AM
McK,
I can't wait to see your comments on the just-completed JFTM-3 "Stellar Raicho" campaign.
Posted by: ManWell | October 27, 2009 at 11:52 PM
Yeah, I'm waiting for the video footage & will have a post up then,
Posted by: John McKittrick | October 28, 2009 at 07:51 AM
John, why do you say this? I'm not really up to date on SM-3s, so I have no idea what their capabilities are.
Posted by: Slartibartfast | October 29, 2009 at 08:44 AM
SM-3 current version is Block I, there is work going on on faster and more capable (ICBM kill) Block II. Other improvements in research include multiple kill vehicle warhead.
Posted by: ewok40k | October 30, 2009 at 02:26 AM
MKV is dead. Obama terminated the program.
As for intercepting ICBM class; well, SM-3 Block I can do it; it's just that it's defended footprint would be pretty small.
I have no confidence in the ability of the Obama Administration to fund fully SM-3 BLock II and deploy it, however.
Posted by: Ryan Crierie | November 02, 2009 at 12:06 AM