Closing Velocity

Best View Yet Of Taepodong-2 On The Pad

Musudan-ri, 3-29-09 (DigitalGlobe satellite photo)

Three stages, shining in the sun.

Gates On NK Missile: "We're Not Prepared To Do Anything About It"

That ski trip I canceled last week so that I could be on call for any contingencies? Thanks, Bob.

Secretary of Defense Gates repeats Hillary's declaration from last week --- no plans to shoot down the Taepodong-2:

The United States can do nothing to stop North Korea from breaking international law in the next 10 days by firing a missile that is unlikely to be shot down by the U.S. or its allies, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday.

Appearing on "FOX News Sunday," Gates said North Korea "probably will" fire the missile, prompting host Chris Wallace to ask: "And there's nothing we can do about it?"

"No," Gates answered, adding, "I would say we're not prepared to do anything about it."

The Fox News Sunday panel weighs in here (unembeddable video). While this is all pretty depressing, I cracked a smile when Juan Freaking Williams morphed into the biggest missile defense cheerleader on the panel, crowing "We HAVE a missile defense! ... We HAVE that capacity!" Good times, good times.

WMD Proliferation Party: Iranian Missile Team In North Korea For ICBM Test Launch

WMD BFF FTW!

Having earlier noted the ballistic missile proliferation life cycle enjoyed by Iran and North Korea, even I am surprised by the Audacity^TM of this development:

[Japanese newspaper] Sankei said in a separate dispatch from Washington that 15 personnel from the Iranian satellite and missile development company Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group are staying in North Korea at the invitation of the North Korean government.

Quoting unnamed intelligence sources in Washington it said are close to North Korean affairs, Sankei said the Iranians are likely to join North Korean preparations for the launch and also observe it. The report said North Korea sent missile experts to Iran when it launched a satellite in February.

North Korea is believed to have sold missiles to Iran, and Iran's Safir-Omid space launch vehicle owes much to the North's Taepodong missile.

Iranians in North Korea, North Koreans in Iran. It's as if WMD proliferation is something around which the North Koreans and Iranians revolve. An "axis," if you will. You know, another laughably archaic term, like "enemy combatants" and "Global War on Terror."

What would embolden the Iranians to now openly bask in the once-blistering proliferation spotlight? (hint)

So lets' compare the respective cycles each side of this crisis has demonstrated:

North Korea-Iran Ballistic Missile Proliferation Cycle

1. NK mass produces basic ballistic missiles (Scuds), sells them to Iran & others.

2. NK uses the proceeds to fund advanced ICBM development & deployment.

3. NK sells advanced missile technology to Iran.

4. Iran utilizes NK's advanced technology to fire its first space launch vehicle (SLV), aka ICBM. NK is on-site for the launch and takes copious notes, both on the technical aspects and the West's (non)response.

5. NK quickly labels its ICBM test a "space launch," too. NK improves its own ICBM, with the Iranians on-site, taking their own copious notes.

6. Rapidly repeat Steps 1-5 until each party has long range ICBMs capable of reaching the United States.

Meanwhile, the Obama Administration has its own audacious cycle; his famous Hope plays a big role:

1. Allow the North Korean Taepodong-2 test go off without a hitch, with Hillary Clinton (and now Bob Gates) proclaiming that the US has no plans to intercept a possibly US-bound ICBM. Completely ignore the deterrent value of missile defense.

2. With unopposed missile launches, North Korea & Iran share ICBM technology (see 5 above). The speed at which Iran builds an ICBM capable of reaching Europe and the eastern seaboard of the US increases dramatically.

3. Scrap European-based defense against long-range Iranian ICBMs, thus having no plans to intercept a possibly US-bound ICBM. Completely ignore the deterrent value of missile defense. Again.

Which cycle wins?

UPDATE: Welcome, doubleplusundead and Ace of Spades. I just can't wait for them to start swapping notes on warhead miniaturization.

Japan Sorties 3rd Aegis, JS Kirishima To Pacific Side

Left: North Korean booster drop zones; Right: JS Kirishima leaves port

Following yesterday's deployment of the JS Kongo and JS Chokai to the Sea of Japan, The Mainichi Daily now reports that a third Aegis ship, the JS Kirishima, has left port to take up station in the Pacific:

The Kongo and Chokai, both equipped with Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) sea-based missiles, departed from Sasebo base in Nagasaki Prefecture for the Sea of Japan, while the Kirishima left Yokosuka base in Kanagawa Prefecture for the Pacific Ocean east of Honshu Island.

The Kirishima, which will be equipped with SM-3 missiles next fiscal year, is believed on a mission to track any ballistic missiles launched by North Korea into Japan's airspace and locate where they plunge into the sea.

Without the longer range SM-3's, the Kirishima is really not equipped for a mid-course intercept of North Korea's Taepodong-2. However, she has a magazine of nearly 100 shorter range SM-2 missiles.

Given yesterday's historic SM-2 double intercept off Los Angeles by the USS Benfold, the Kirishima appears to have sufficient air defense capability to take out plummeting boosters or debris heading for Japan.

Timely BMD Test: Aegis Downs 2 Missiles Off California

USS Benfold launching SM-2

As North Korea nears the brink with the scheduled launch of its longest range ballistic missile, the Aegis destroyer USS Benfold achieved another first for US missile defense --- successful simultaneous intercepts of a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) and a cruise missile:

During the event, Benfold's Aegis Weapons System successfully detected and intercepted a cruise missile target with a SM-2 BLK IIIA, while simultaneously detecting and intercepting an incoming short range ballistic missile (SRBM) target with a modified SM-2 BLK IV. This is the first time the fleet has successfully tested the Aegis system's ability to intercept both an SRBM in terminal phase and a low-altitude cruise missile target at the same time.

While this SM-2 test did not demonstrate the capability to intercept an ICBM (that's the job of larger SM-3's), it once again showed the Navy's skill at fleet protection against Scuds and cruise missiles, the original mission of Aegis.

Combine North Korea's historical tendency to salvo multiple shorter range missiles in tandem with its long range Taepodong tests (as it did in both 1998 and 2006) with the very busy naval action in the Sea of Japan (South Korean, Japanese and US Aegis fleets moving into position) and this successful test could not be more timely.

UPDATE: Random fact about this ship's namesake:

He was killed in action while serving with the First Marine Division in Korea. "For gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty while serving as a Hospital Corpsman, attached to a Company in the First Marine Division during operations against enemy aggressor forces in Korea on 5 September 1952..." he was posthumously awarded the Medal of Honor.

UPDATE (4-17-09): Video added:

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Czech Govt. Falls, Vital US Missile Defense Radar Now In Doubt

In this video, UPI defense columnist Martin Sieff sounds the alarm:

Now, he's a little out there in the video, whereas his related UPI column is more evenhanded:

The pro-American Czech government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek fell Tuesday after being defeated in a vote of confidence in Parliament. That event may have sounded the death knell for U.S. plans to defend the Eastern Seaboard of the United States from Iranian intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with nuclear weapons.

"May have sounded the death knell" is a far cry from the certainty he loudly proclaims on YouTube. But it is refreshing to see the ramifications of Iran's recent satellite launch and subsequent ICBM development put into plain English for folks not following the European missile defense debate. Even if it's by a wild-eyed reporter.

Bottom line: A new Czech government is not good for European missile defense, but I'm not ready to concede that the radar is permanently scrapped.

Fox Special Report Panel On North Korea & Missile Defense

Haven't found video from yesterday's show, but here's the transcript:

Japanese Govt. Authorizes Military To Intercept NK Missile/Debris

Left: Japanese Aegis ships Kongo and Chokai; Right: Japanese PAC-3 Battery

It's official: the constitutionally pacifist Japanese government has finished the arduous legal process of allowing its military to act against the North Korean threat:

Japan ordered its military on Friday to destroy a North Korean missile or its debris, if the launch fails and falling pieces of the rocket seem to imperil Japanese territory.

Japan ordered two destroyers equipped with American-built Aegis anti-missile systems into the Sea of Japan, and said it would soon move Patriot land-to-air missiles to the country's northern coast, over which the North Korean rocket is likely to fly.

Ted Postol, permanent fixture and tiresome folk hero of the BMD skeptic crowd, weighs in predictably:

"They are not up to the job," said Theodore Postol, an expert on missile systems and a professor of science, technology and national security policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Like the US, Japan has been methodically testing its ballistic missile defense systems (BMDS) ever since North Korea started aggressively overflying the island nation with its WMD carriers:

• JS Kongo intercepts ballistic missile with SM-3 (video), the first successful test of Aegis BMD by a US ally (Dec. 2007)

• Japanese PAC-3 crew successfully intercepts a target missile at White Sands, NM, another first for a US ally (Sept. 2008)

• JS Chokai fails to intercept. While all the elements of the Aegis BMD performed as expected (radar, fire control, launch, etc.), the SM-3 interceptor failed in the final seconds before intercept (Nov. 2008).

So, a mixed bag, but I wouldn't say "they're not up to the job."

Democrats Call For Tomahawk Strike Against North Korean Launchpad

President Clinton's former Secretary of Defense William Perry and Assistant Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter have called on the President to take pre-emptive action against North Korea's ballistic missile while it's still on the launchpad (MUST READ op-ed):

If Necessary, Strike and Destroy

North Korea Cannot Be Allowed to Test This Missile

North Korean technicians are reportedly in the final stages of fueling a long-range ballistic missile that some experts estimate can deliver a deadly payload to the United States. The last time North Korea tested such a missile, in 1998, it sent a shock wave around the world, but especially to the United States and Japan, both of which North Korea regards as archenemies. They recognized immediately that a missile of this type makes no sense as a weapon unless it is intended for delivery of a nuclear warhead.

A year later North Korea agreed to a moratorium on further launches, which it upheld -- until now. But there is a critical difference between now and 1998. Today North Korea openly boasts of its nuclear deterrent, has obtained six to eight bombs' worth of plutonium since 2003 and is plunging ahead to make more in its Yongbyon reactor. The six-party talks aimed at containing North Korea's weapons of mass destruction have collapsed.

Should the United States allow a country openly hostile to it and armed with nuclear weapons to perfect an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering nuclear weapons to U.S. soil? We believe not. The Bush administration has unwisely ballyhooed the doctrine of "preemption," which all previous presidents have sustained as an option rather than a dogma. It has applied the doctrine to Iraq, where the intelligence pointed to a threat from weapons of mass destruction that was much smaller than the risk North Korea poses. (The actual threat from Saddam Hussein was, we now know, even smaller than believed at the time of the invasion.) But intervening before mortal threats to U.S. security can develop is surely a prudent policy.

After describing the type of airstrike or cruise missile attack we should employ, the two former Defense officials conclude --- STRIKE NOW:

This is a hard measure for [the President] to take. It undoubtedly carries risk. But the risk of continuing inaction in the face of North Korea's race to threaten this country would be greater. Creative diplomacy might have avoided the need to choose between these two unattractive alternatives. Indeed, in earlier years the two of us were directly involved in negotiations with North Korea, coupled with military planning, to prevent just such an outcome. We believe diplomacy might have precluded the current situation. But diplomacy has failed, and we cannot sit by and let this deadly threat mature. A successful Taepodong launch, unopposed by the United States, its intended victim, would only embolden North Korea even further. The result would be more nuclear warheads atop more and more missiles.

Forgive me -- I did not include the link to their Washington Post op-ed at the top like I usually do. Here it is.

What's that? This is not from today's WashPost? Hrm. Please re-read the whole thing and tell me: what exactly has changed? Oh, only One thing.

(h/t: National Review)

PS: As you read this, Ashton Carter is undergoing confirmation for yet another stint at the Pentagon. I think Obama's nominee should be asked about this extremely hawkish op-ed from 2006.

UPDATE: Welcome, Ace of Spades and Little Green Footballs. For a look at how much some Clintonites have toned down their previous hawkishness, I can give you no better example than this one.

Video: Hillary Clinton: US Has No Plans To Intercept North Korean Missile

Well, that's that:

The United States has no plans to shoot down the North Korean rocket, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Wednesday in an interview with CNN’s Jill Dougherty, but will raise the issue with the U.N. Security Council if Pyongyang carries out a launch.

It's rare I get to say this, but I told you so.

Perhaps it never dawned on Hillary and Obama that the very threat of intercepting the North Korean missile may have very well kept the thing on the ground. And perhaps she could have played coy with CNN and just silently left a menacing arrow in her diplomatic quiver. But she didn't.

Excellent work, Hillary.

 

UPDATE: Welcome, Commentary and memeorandum visitors.